ArmInfo.The geopolitical games in the South Caucasus are now being held with the involvement of Ukraine as well. And the main players, the centers of power and the countries of the region themselves, continue to play, maneuver and try to get preferences, each in their own field and within their own capabilities. Head of Caucasus Department of the CIS Institute, Military Expert Vladimir Evseev, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Baku, in particular, periodically tries to pedal and aggravate the situation with the deployment of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Karabakh. Knowing full well that their deployment in itself guarantees the preservation of the unrecognized republic, Azerbaijan is extremely interested in their speedy withdrawal. We also understand that the allied Russia's relations with Azerbaijan do not at all rule out the existence of significant problems," he said.
In this light, the expert highlighted the provision of assistance to Ukraine by certain individuals from the administration of Ilham Aliyev. Noting Aliyev's desire to put pressure on the Russian Federation at this very moment, when Moscow is busy with Ukraine, as quite understandable, Evseev stressed that Aliyev's behavior cannot lead to any radical changes. The expert is convinced that Russia's position is unchanged – peacekeepers will be in Artsakh as long as there are Armenians there. Commenting on another Caucasian case - the intensification of the process of normalizing relations between Armenia and Turkey, Evseev assumed that Ankara's activity in relations with Yerevan may be due to its dissatisfaction with the agreement on allied cooperation signed by Azerbaijan and the Russian Federation. According to him, it is Baku's attempts to balance between Moscow and Ankara that are the main motivator for the latter's attempts to become more active in the Armenian direction. Of course, along the way, trying to weaken the military presence of the Russian Federation in the region, in particular, to remove from Armenia the 102nd RMB in Gyumri established to restrain Turkey.
"At the same time, I personally do not see any prospects for a real normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey, the establishment of diplomatic relations, the opening of borders. Turkey's hostile attitude towards Armenia will not disappear. Accordingly, everything that is happening today is nothing more than a forced imitation, just a process in which each of the players pursues hisher own goals. It should also be noted that, for example, the supply of Turkish weapons to Kiev can seriously affect its relations with Moscow. In particular, becoming the cause of a new round of tension in regions of mutual interest for Moscow and Ankara," he stressed.
Commenting on the position of Armenia, Evseev characterized the prospect of Armenia's movement to the West as an alternative to allied relations with the Russian Federation as extremely doubtful. In this light, he gave the example of Ukraine "abandoned by the Americans", forced to try to cope with the situation solely on its own. According to the expert, the example of Ukraine for Armenia indicates only one thing: the United States and Europe will definitely not fight for Armenia and Armenians.