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- Yerevan
Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agenda. Who benefits from stalemate?
“A direct dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan is unlikely” – this opinion was expressed by political scientist Armen Vardanyan during a discussion on the topic “Armenian-Azerbaijani peace agenda. Who benefits from stalemate?” Another participant in the discussion, political scientist Edgar Vardanyan, believes that “the provocation of a new full-scale war is also unlikely”.
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Armenia and Azerbaijan have different approaches to the peace agenda
According to political scientist Edgar Vardanyan, Azerbaijan wants everyone to forget about the existence of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, and Armenia cannot allow this:
“Since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict constitutes a large part of the agenda of the Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, it is logical that we turned to the OSCE Minsk Group [the format of negotiations under the co-chairmanship of the United States, France and Russia, which was in effect until the 2020 Karabakh war] with a request to take on active functions or attempt to perform certain actions.
The political scientist believes that this step of the Armenian authorities indicates that they are in favor of peace and want to normalize relations with Azerbaijan:
“But there are issues that cannot be ignored, there are formats that cannot be put aside, forgotten about”.
In the conditions of the Russian-Ukrainian war and the confrontation between Russia and the West, the work of the Minsk Group, as Edgar Vardanyan put it, is “objectively difficult”:
“On the other hand, members of the group may not take joint action, but may contribute to this agenda individually. Everyone is interested in resolving this issue peacefully, everyone understands that new escalations are highly undesirable, especially in the current situation”.
According to Armen Vardanyan, Azerbaijan also wants peace, but in a different way and in its own format. It implies recognition by Armenia of its territorial integrity, including Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, the political scientist considers a direct dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan without intermediaries unlikely:
“Azerbaijan is well aware that Armenia is weakened after the war, and is trying in every possible way to take advantage of this situation. We see how provocations are constantly carried out at different areas [on the border of Armenia], but Armenia does not succumb to them”.
The political scientist recalls that after the 44-day war, the ambassadors of the United States, France, and a number of EU countries accredited in Armenia have repeatedly stated that the conflict has not yet been resolved, it is necessary to resolve the issue of the status of Nagorno-Karabakh:
“This is a clear signal to Azerbaijan that these countries will not make a final decision on the issue by force [that is, following the results of the war]”.
At the same time, Armen Vardanyan is sure that Russia is not interested in a comprehensive solution to the conflict:
“Russia needs this conflict to remain frozen, but not completely resolved. This conflict is a club in the hands of Russia, by using which it puts pressure on both sides. As soon as the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict is really resolved, Russia will lose its weight and influence in the region”.
Armen Vardanyan even excludes such a possibility. He believes that a new war in Karabakh will become “a matter of Russia’s authority.” The expert also sees Azerbaijan’s invasion of the sovereign territory of Armenia as unlikely, since it is fraught with “serious consequences for Azerbaijan.”
The political scientist says that Aliyev “understands very well that the Karabakh conflict has not been completely resolved”, although he constantly announces this. The awareness of incompleteness confirms the rearmament and modernization of the Azerbaijani army, as well as some statements by the President of Azerbaijan:
“Aliev speaks in almost all his statements about Armenian revanchism, about the possibility that Armenia will start a war, and this reveals his fears”.
According to the political scientist, time is working in favor of Azerbaijan, but he believes that the situation may change in the near future:
“The US and Iran have almost reached an agreement on a new nuclear deal. This means that Iran will return to the world oil market. Oil prices will fall, and Azerbaijan’s oil revenues will also, which will affect the economy, as well as the acquisition of new weapons”.
According to Edgar Vardanyan, in the current situation, the provocation of a new war is not in the interests of Turkey and Azerbaijan:
“It is necessary to understand what is the goal, what result they can achieve in this situation, especially since today Turkey and Azerbaijan are trying to be reliable partners of Russia and the West. But Armenia does not pursue an aggressive policy, has no territorial claims against these states, considers the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a matter of self-determination, and, moreover, constantly talks about peace”.