ArmInfo. Should a referendum on joining Russia take place in Artsakh, Russia has every chance to win, the independent analyst Armen Hovhannisyan said in an interview with ArmInfo.   

"We can speak in favor of such a prospect given Russia's extensive  experience in holding referendums in its actually mandated  territories in the post-Soviet space. I consider such an outcome most  likely in the case of Artsakh, which found itself under Russia's  control as a result of the 44-day war," he said.  

The recent period has seen regular reports on the public sentiments  in Artsakh in favor of a referendum on joining Russia. The sources of  the reports are mostly located in Artsakh, but the Russian federal  mass media are disseminated the information as well. 

According to Mr Hovhannisyan, the threats to hold a referendum in  Artsakh or to recognize its independence are, by and large, Moscow's  response to Baku's recent threats to open a second front for Russia  in the Caucasus mid the Ukraine developments. 

The fact is, however, that it is the territories under the West's  control that have in recent decades gained real independence after  the people actually exercised their right to self-determination -  Kosovo, for example. On the other hand, similar Russian projects -  Transdniestria, Abkhazia, South Ossetia, as well as the Donetsk and  Luhansk republics now, – are the entities recognized by Russia alone. 

"Negotiations over Artsakh's independence are under way in Russia as  well. But we should clearly see the understand the difference between  the independence as viewed by Russia and the independence of Artsakh  that is mentioned in, for example, the resolution approved by the  French Senate in the wake of the 44-day Azerbaijani aggression. These  are entirely different types of independence – in terms of both  essence and dependence on the recognizing states," Mr Hovhannisyan  said.