ArmInfo.Taking into account the absence of any objective reasons for Baku to keep the Armenian population of Artsakh in Artsakh, I personally doubt the possibility  of signing a peace treaty with Yerevan. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by a historical sociologist, publicist, and  professor at the New York University at Abu Dhabi Georgi Derluguian.

"Taking into account the obviousness of Baku's intentions, the goal  of Yerevan, the goal of all Armenians should be to oppose these plans  through diplomacy, politics, propaganda, and, if necessary, the army  and the talks, in particular the Yerevan talks on a peace agreement  with Baku, probably refer to this. I think they are part of a  strategy to drag out the negotiations, the process as a whole, with  the ultimate goal of avoiding a direct military conflict," he  stressed.

In the professor's opinion, Europe, in principle, shares this  approach of Yerevan. And it is the EU's desire to avoid any process  in the South Caucasus as a whole that Brussels, in its turn, is also  interested in long negotiations, delaying the process. According to  Derluguian's forecasts, the conflict around Artsakh may become part  of the overall geopolitical settlement package in a number of  regions, but only after the Ukrainian settlement, or, more precisely,  Moscow's renunciation of its gains in Ukraine.

Assuming that the development of these settlement packages is already  underway, Derluguian considers delaying time in order to avoid making  specific decisions on Artsakh the most rational strategy for Armenia,  at least for the next year. Another important background factor in  Brussels' policy in the Caucasus, the professor considers the fear of  losing Azerbaijan as a supplier of oil and gas in the face of a  growing need to avoid Russian gas in order to increase pressure on  Moscow.

"Nevertheless, given the kleptocratic clan nature of the Aliyev  regime, it will be quite easy to impose sanctions on him, first of  all, due to the fact that against the backdrop of Ukraine, public  opinion in the West has become much more active than a couple more  months ago. And politicians are forced to take this into account and  follow this. This fact in a certain way, in turn, ties the hands of  the Baku regime in the Armenian direction. Energy carriers are  important, but in response to any actions of Aliyev that will cause  horror in Europe, its leaders will simply have to take actions  against Azerbaijan, as they did against the Russian Federation,"  Derlugyan summed up.