After the 44-day war and the trilateral statement signed on 9 November, the Armenian and Turkish authorities are trying to create mechanisms for the normalization of relations, particularly in the "3+3" format involving the South Caucasus countries (except Georgia), as well as Russia, Turkey and Iran, and in the bilateral format with the participation of special representatives of Turkey and Armenia.
These initiatives cause serious concern and criticism on the part of the Armenian public, which sees it as a threat of strengthening Ankara's position at the expense of Armenian interests.
Talking to Armenian News-NEWS.am, Russian Turkologist Vladimir Avatkov said Turkey is trying to build relations with Armenia from scratch but is linking this with the formation of Armenia-Azerbaijan relations.
There are a number of problems to be faced.
These are issues of borders, corridor and territories. Regarding the corridor, it is clear that Turkey wants to have another passageway to Azerbaijan. Ankara wants to connect faster with Middle and Central Asia through the Caspian Sea and get as close as possible to China, expanding the function of the two-string not only at the level of Russia-West, but also at the level of West-China.
Armenia, Russia and Azerbaijan
There are problems in the region in terms of trade by land, with the transportation of goods by rail from Baku through Georgia to Turkey due to Russia's complicated relationship with Georgia.
Armenia, becoming the point through which the conjunction passes, will be able to gain added value and increase its own prosperity from the movement of goods through its territory.
The only chance to overcome the conflict zone is to look for infrastructure projects that will be mutually beneficial and at the same time will connect Armenia and Azerbaijan in a way that neither side can damage the process, because it will not be profitable. The corridor is one of the possible infrastructure projects that can do that.
It is important that under the agreement, Russia will be the guarantor of the corridor's safety. That is, it is beneficial not only from Turkey's point of view, which many fear, but also from Russia's point of view. Moscow will be interested in this corridor. In addition, it will be unambiguously beneficial from the standpoint of the sides themselves: communications will begin to emerge, and only through it will it be possible to overcome the conflict. If there is no such communication, the next generations are unlikely to be able to create this communication at all, given the negativization of each other in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
The possible normalization of relations between Armenia and Turkey is certainly not a risk, but an opportunity to develop and strengthen communication in the region.
The role of the West
The West has always sought to extend its influence in Eastern Europe, the South Caucasus and Central Asia. But Russia shows that it ensures its own security and plans to be a guarantor of security for neighboring spaces. This can be done in different ways: through "soft power" as well as through hard power. Russia is a world power and is responsible for security both in neighboring regions and in world politics.
Russia cannot be excluded. No matter how much the West tries to exclude Russia, it excludes itself from world politics, because Russia, China, Turkey and the Arab countries together form the future world order.
For what reason should the West be positive about the problems in the South Caucasus? No reason at all. For what reason should they be impartial? They will not be. For what reason should they be interested in peace? They will not be interested in peace. The countries in the region and Russia are really interested in peace in the South Caucasus, because the South Caucasus is in direct contact with the North Caucasus. Russia implements the foreign political ideology of peace and security in the world politics. And this is fundamentally important for us in the South Caucasus. Therefore, Moscow is a guarantor and an interested party in the realization of this very peace in the current difficult processes.
Syrian formula
Russia and Turkey have historically clashed in the Caucasus, but today they are trying to implement a formula similar to the Syrian formula. There is nothing wrong with that, because in the South Caucasus, of the external players in the world, Russia, as well as Iran and Turkey, are interested because they are neighbors. Being at one table, they can solve a lot of issues together. The same applies to Georgia, which is not yet part of the "3+3" format. But this would move a lot of issues from the dead point, because Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan live in the region and, respectively, it is necessary to find points of contact. In this case, Moscow is only helping to find these points of contact.