Back on February 24, when the [Armenian] dram had not appreciated yet, we said that the war could bring benefits to Armenia’s economy in the short term, that the Russians would come to us who will bring money; secondly, Russia will start selling [natural] gas and oil in [Russian] rubles, and there we will win again. Former PM of Armenia, chairman of the opposition Freedom Party, and economist Hrant Bagratyan stated this in an interview with Armenian News-NEWS.am.
"As a result, only in the first four months—on the account of the money brought to Armenia by the Russians and economizing it—we [i.e., Armenia] started paying in rubles, as we had a surplus of rubles, whereas the dollar was not enough, we received one billion dollars more than we used to receive. This resulted in the dram’s appreciation. It is a sad thing because of the improper action of the Central Bank [of Armenia]," he added.
Bagratyan noted that dram’s rise in Armenia will not continue for long, it is a one-time phenomenon, and this effect will gradually disappear after the end of the war in Ukraine.
He expressed a conviction that the Central Bank of Armenia could have restrained the increase of the exchange rate of the dram, but did not do so.
When asked how is it that prices in Armenia continue to rise amid the dram’s appreciation, Bagratyan responded: "Inflation continues because they have fake growth, but we have no production. Inflation is not only a monetary phenomenon. Also, that production, those volumes do not exist. On the other hand, yes, the demand has increased because several tens of thousands of additional consumers have come here from Russia."
Commenting on the popular view that after the end of the Russian-Ukrainian war, Armenia could return to the situation of 2019, Bagratyan said: "(…) remittances put pressure on the market; it's a short amount of money that we received."
According to Bagratyan, the Central Bank of Armenia is deceiving the government.
"The government is subject to the Central Bank today. Maybe it seems to the Prime Minister that he is ordering the Central Bank. Today, the Central Bank is making Armenia's economy ‘dance,’" he said.
As per Bagratyan, it is beneficial for the US that its dollar is depreciating against the Armenian dram today.