ArmInfo.Turkish President Recep Erdogan could well attempt to destabilize the South Caucasus to consolidate his positions before the 2023 elections, Professor Ruben Safrastyan said in an interview with ArmInfo.
He does not rule out foreign policy gambling to distract public attention from the grave socio-economic situation in Turkey, which would enable Turkey to try to destabilize the situation in the Caucasus by means of Azerbaijan, purely for domestic political gain.
"It should be noted at this point that the recent polls show the ruling Justice and Development Party second for the first time over two decades, surrendering the top place to the Kemalist Republican People's Party. However, other polls show Erdogan as the most popular Turkish politician, who, according to Turkish and foreign experts, is most likely to win the run-off," Mr Safrastyan said.
The rumors have been circulating in Turkey over the last year about the Turkish president's intention to hold an early presidential election this November. This June, however, Erdogan stated once again that no early presidential or parliamentary elections would be held in the country, and the elections would take place in June 2023. Recep Erdogan's traditional rival, the Republican People's Party, is claiming that by means of early elections the Turkish president is seeking to identify his falling rating, with all the recent polls being evidence thereof.
Anyway, the sad socio-economic and financial situation in Turkey and widespread popular discontent is sure to affect the rating of Recep Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party. And any realistic forecasts are too early to make given the ruling party's shaky positions in confronting a six-party opposition coalition.
"I think that a victory of the Republican People's Party over Erdogan would bring about changes in Turkey's policy toward Armenia, as that state's foreign policy would be more predictable and more coordinated with the West – the USA and NATO. However, I do not expect any radical changes in Turkey's regional policy and its policy toward Armenia," Mr Safrastyan said.