It's very good that Armenia and Turkey are talking to each other because these countries are neighbors, and you can't choose your neighbors, but you have to find ways for them—despite all the problems associated with it. Taner Akcam, a famous Turkish historian and Inaugural Director of the Armenian Genocide Research Program of the Promise Armenian Institute at UCLA, made such a prediction on the regular edition of the "Strength Factor" program.
"In international relations, all over the world, even enemy states have diplomatic relations with each other. So, based on many circumstances, I am fully in favor of establishing diplomatic relations and opening borders. But whether we can call this a normalization of relations is another question. I am in favor of establishing diplomatic relations and opening the border because it is an important precondition for the normalization of relations," he said.
To the question of whether there are real possibilities of reopening the Armenia-Turkey border and establishing diplomatic relations between the two countries, which would be a necessary prerequisite for the normalization of relations, Taner Akcam said that the matter should be considered at several levels.
"I am following the path of Hrant Dink, and the most important thing for me is to develop the relations between the two peoples, this is very important for us. Closed borders and the absence of diplomatic relations are one of the main tests for the broken relations between peoples. That is why, I believe, the establishment of diplomatic relations and the opening of the border will help in this matter. It is important that Armenia and Turkey can talk directly to each other and discuss various issues. Whether this will help in the normalization of relations is another question," he said.
According to the historian, Armenian-Turkish or Armenia-Turkey relations have ended up in the shadow of Azerbaijan. He reminded that it was Turkey that originally refused to establish diplomatic relations with Armenia, "And Azerbaijan has taken Turkey ‘hostage’ so that the latter would not normalize relations with Armenia."
"There have been various governments in Turkey, some of which found that policy of Azerbaijan convenient because they themselves did not want to establish relations with Armenia under any circumstances, and some governments followed the path of Azerbaijan out of economic or selfish interests. I am not so sure whether this process will contribute to the establishment of Armenia-Turkey relations; let's wait and see. I am not an expert on international relations, but this issue should be paid attention to. I am fully in favor of bringing people closer together, creating ties, and developing relations between the parties," he emphasized.
Addressing the question of whether the Turkish president really wants to establish diplomatic relations, normalize relations with Armenia, and create a favorable environment for improving the relations between the Armenian and Turkish peoples, Taner Akcam said that no matter how bad the objectives of the Turkish president may be, in international relations you have to look at the matter from a different perspective. According to him, you can never know those objectives, but you can guess the conditions.
"This is where I see the motives that may lie behind Turkey's goals to develop relations with Armenia. The first is economic benefit. Turkey is a very powerful country economically. Yes, there are serious economic problems now, but Turkey is quite a powerful country. In case of opening the border and establishing diplomatic relations, normalizing the relations with Armenia, Turkey will gain a lot economically because if the negotiations have a positive end, it will get a direct connection with Armenia, Azerbaijan, as well as Central Asian countries, it will also get access to railways, etc. This will be a great economic benefit for Turkey, and this was not possible because of Azerbaijan," he said.
According to Taner Akcam, Turkey wants to become a regional power, just like all other big states want to achieve it in their regions. And if Turkey wants to achieve this, it is in its interest to establish relations with Armenia. The historian also mentioned that we should not forget that the main—or the only—precondition posited by Turkey for the establishment of relations with Armenia was the Nagorno-Karabakh (Artsakh) conflict, and now Turkey has no other justification from the point of view of discourse and ideology.
"There was a war [in the fall of 2020], Azerbaijan won it, and Armenia practically lost the main part of Nagorno-Karabakh, and the only justification that Turkey was positing for the normalization of relations with Armenia is no longer there; fortunately or unfortunately, that issue was resolved on the battlefield. Therefore, Turkey no longer has another precondition, and that is, in my opinion, the reason why it is beneficial for Turkey to normalize relations with Armenia. I believe that they are serious, but that seriousness of the Turkish side largely depends on Azerbaijan's policy. Compared to us, the international observers, Armenians naturally know much better that Azerbaijan's policy does not stabilize the situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, they [i.e., the Azerbaijanis] are still pursuing a long-term policy of ethnic cleansing [of the Armenians]," he said.
The Turkish historian noted that it is not known what preconditions Azerbaijan can posit before Turkey for negotiations with Armenia.
"The situation here is quite fragile, I can't say more, but I want to emphasize again that the shadow of Azerbaijan is now present in the negotiations, but it will continue to be. As Azerbaijan seems to have given Turkey a green light in this matter, we should really take advantage of this as much as possible," he emphasized.
Turning to the question that there is concern in the Armenian society about how it is possible to normalize relations with Turkey if in 2020 the latter clearly supported Azerbaijan in its bloody war unleashed against Artsakh, Taner Akcam said that these concerns are justified and it is not possible to object to them and to say that there were no such steps by Turkey; they are facts, they should be accepted as reality.
"The question is whether it is possible to achieve better relations if [Armenia-Turkey] the border remains closed, all ties are severed, or to achieve at least some changes in Turkey's internal politics using the opening of the border, the establishment of diplomatic relations, and any other type of bilateral relations. I understand these concerns, they are justified because Turkey is really pursuing an aggressive policy—and not only towards Armenia. Look at what policy Turkey is pursuing against the Syrian Kurds and, in general, against Syria; these are really important issues. It is possible to change this approach, or at least there is a possibility to change it, if there are bilateral relations between the parties," Taner Akcam said.