ArmInfo.The telephone conversations of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his deputy Karen Donfried with the leaders and foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan, respectively, are evidence of a significant US activation in the Caucasus direction.
Chairman of the board of the Democratic Alternative Party, political scientist Suren Surenyants, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo. " I am convinced that such an intensity of calls from Washington to Yerevan and Baku against the background of Ukraine, now Kosovo and Taiwan is a not a coincidence. And this indicates a high degree of US interest in the current processes between Armenia and Azerbaijan. I think that the Americans voiced certain proposals to Aliyev, opening up more space for him to maneuver between Washington and Moscow," he suggested.
Against this background, according to the political scientist, Moscow, in turn, is becoming more active. First of all, with the aim of making proposals to Baku in turn, and secondly, to convince Yerevan of the need for decisions based on these proposals. Having as a priority the blocking of American activity. In his opinion, this is evidenced by the calls of Lavrov and Putin to Baku, following the American ones.
According to the political scientist, real politik continues to dictate, which is expressed in the increased role of the Russian Federation in the South Caucasus, due to the largest arsenal in the region. Against which the EU and even the US still play the role of second fiddle. Accordingly, Moscow does not oppose the initiatives of other players in this game, as long as they do not directly contradict the Tripartite Statement of November 9, 2020. In other words, Moscow's reaction to Blinken's and Donfried's calls to Yerevan and Baku allows us to assume that the US is going beyond its red lines.
"One way or another, I don't see the threat of a big war, Because I do not see any prospects for major players to allow such a war to Aliyev. Today, neither Russia nor the West needs war. Russia does not want to break the status quo that it has established, and the West does not want to jeopardize communications to the Middle East. Baku can play on all this only by intensifying bargaining with the West and the Russian Federation, of course, at the expense of Armenia and Artsakh," Surenyants forecasted.