Forecast: Pressure on Armenia will grow, but there will be no big war

ARMINFO
Armenia – Aug 4 2022
David Stepanyan

ArmInfo.Azerbaijan's pressure on Armenia will only increase over time, but the likelihood of a large-scale war is low. MP from the "I have honor" faction Tigran  Abrahamyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo. 

" Baku's main goal of increasing the degree of pressure through armed  provocations and murders on the border is to gain the corridor they  longed for through the territory of Armenia. But today I see only the  possibility of the risk of continuing local clashes. Azerbaijan has  been preparing for its current stage for a long time, actively  spreading misinformation about violations of the regime truce that  allegedly took place by the Armenian side," he said.

According to the oppositionist, in order to achieve its goal, Baku  forced Yerevan to withdraw the last conscript soldiers from Artsakh  ahead of time. Azerbaijan also forced Armenia to agree to the  construction of the Armenian section of the Tegh-Kornidzor road,  alternative to the Lachin corridor. And although no construction work  has been completed there, it turns out that even now citizens will  have to move on the ground to travel to Artsakh.

The parliamentarian is convinced that by putting forward such  humiliating demands for the Armenian leadership, Baku is preparing  the ground for new demands in the future. And he will receive exactly  as much as Yerevan will be ready to give up. Accordingly, according  to his forecasts, the current tension will last until Armenia  fulfills all the demands of Azerbaijan.

"Baku has a clear program of action for the final de-Armenization of  Artsakh in the next decade. While the current government of Armenia,  apparently, is ready to make concessions, surrender territories, etc.   However, instead of doing it peacefully , it prefers to do this under  the guise of local clashes. Considering that having lost Artsakh,  Armenia will become even more defenseless, our task is to prevent  behind-the- scenes agreements around Artsakh. Since the loss of  Artsakh, the loss of a combat-ready army will lead us to the loss of  statehood," Abramyan summed up. 

Emil Lazarian

“I should like to see any power of the world destroy this race, this small tribe of unimportant people, whose wars have all been fought and lost, whose structures have crumbled, literature is unread, music is unheard, and prayers are no more answered. Go ahead, destroy Armenia . See if you can do it. Send them into the desert without bread or water. Burn their homes and churches. Then see if they will not laugh, sing and pray again. For when two of them meet anywhere in the world, see if they will not create a New Armenia.” - WS