ArmInfo.The purpose of the latest Azerbaijani attacks on the positions of the Artsakh Defense Army is to force Armenia to build a road bypassing Berdzor in order to surrender it. Political scientist Armen Vardanyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"And I absolutely do not expect such a policy of military blackmail to stop after the construction of this road. Baku's recent military provocations were just a warning and ultimatum. And they will continue until they come across either a symmetrical response or diplomatic agreements. One way or another , but Aliyev clearly does not intend to make concessions on the issue of Berdzor. So the surrender of the city is only a matter of time," he said.
In making this forecast, the political scientist relies on the fact of the inaction of the Russian peacekeeping contingent in Artsakh, which is absolutely not going to somehow interfere in the hostilities in the territory under its control. And after the withdrawal of the last units from Armenia, the Artsakh Defense Army will obviously not be able to resist the large-scale Azerbaijani aggression.
"The inaction of the peacekeepers is explained simply – their goal is not at all to protect the people of Artsakh at the cost of their own lives. Moscow's goal is monopoly control over the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict through its own military. In other words, their goal is not peacekeeping, but geopolitics. And the results of the clashes in the corridor in this sense are not new at all. We have already encountered a similar situation in Khtsaberd and Parukh," Vardanyan recalled.
According to the political scientist, against such a background, the only possible step for Armenia is to contain the militant impulses of Baku by military means. Since the possibility of a serious counteraction to Azerbaijani aggression by the Russian Federation, at best, may be in 2025, after the end of the term of deployment of the Russian military in Artsakh. And this is only if Baku demands their immediate withdrawal. Commenting on the second, "corridor" vector of Azerbaijani pressure on Armenia, Vardanyan noted that Baku's attempts to break through an extraterritorial corridor through Syunik are unlikely to succeed. According to him, such a scenario is a red line for Armenia. And any attempts by Aliyev to break through the corridor by force will run into opposition from Iran, the West, and possibly Russia," the political scientist summed up.