Today it became known that the next meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev will be held on August 31 in Brussels. A trilateral meeting was reported, no separate meeting between Pashinyan and Aliyev has been announced yet.
Azerbaijan increases the level of aggression
According to Azeri expert Taron Hovhannisyan, many problems were accumulated in the run-up to the meeting, including the aggressive behavior in Artsakh in early August.
Aliyev officially declares that the residents of Akhavno, Susa and Berdzor must and must leave their homes. This is, in fact, a forced deportation and contradicts Azerbaijan's false thesis that Armenians can supposedly live peacefully under Azerbaijani leadership. The authorities in Baku are forcing Armenians to leave their homes.
"I am convinced that the meeting will not take place in a constructive way because Baku is not in the mood for it, otherwise it would not pursue an aggressive policy. Azerbaijan's actions are becoming more and more aggressive against both the people of Artsakh and Armenia. Therefore, there is no chance for positive developments following the results of the meeting," the political analyst told NEWS.am.
In parallel, there are other issues such as unblocking communications, delimitation and demarcation, and humanitarian issues.
One day before the meeting between Aliyev and Pashinyan in Brussels, the members of the commission for the Armenian-Azerbaijani border demarcation and security will have their second meeting in Moscow on August 30. The first such meeting was held on May 24 on the interstate border between Armenia and Azerbaijan at the Yeraskha section.
Baku fails to honor its commitments
According to Hovhannisyan, Azerbaijan has no desire to unblock communications. They are conditioned not by economic but political factors. Baku has shaped it into the idea of the so-called Zangezur corridor via Armenia.
Azerbaijan sees this not as an event aimed at creating a constructive atmosphere. The fact that there will be no such approach on the part of Azerbaijan is evidenced by Baku's position on the issue of fulfilling its obligations on the return of Armenian prisoners of war and civilian hostages, which (position) boils down to the initiation of false criminal cases. Azerbaijan refuses to fulfill its obligations to return all detainees.
This is the kind of step that could help build confidence, if there were such a desire, but Azerbaijan does not have it.
"I think the meeting will be reduced to an exchange of views," the expert believes.
Restrained competition between Russia and the West
The meetings are not initiated by Azerbaijan or Armenia. The mediator in this case is Brussels, but, as the political scientist noted, no one restricts the organization of meetings with the same intensity in Moscow.
"It is unrealistic to think that Brussels has leverage and can limit the organization of the meeting at the initiative of the Russian side.
The EU is undoubtedly an important player, but everybody is aware of Russia's military presence in the region, including in Karabakh, understands that the trilateral formats after November 9, 2020 were initiated with the mediation of Moscow.
I do not think that the EU can even partially push Moscow out of the current processes, because only Russia has a real presence on the ground. Another thing is that there is competition between the West and Russia. Each side is trying to show that it is the most active mediator and is trying to resolve problems. This competition is also between the co-chairs of the OSCE MG (Russia on the one hand and the US and France on the other hand).
But all this doesn't mean that any of the sides leaves the process", Hovhannisyan said.
Aram Danielyan