ArmInfo.The main conclusion that can be reached based on the published results of the so-called "Fourth Brussels" is an agreement on a kind of November review of the achievements of Armenia and Azerbaijan in preparing for the signing of a peace treaty. Leader of the Armenian Constructive Party, political scientist Andrias Ghukasyan, expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
Following a 4-hour meeting in Brussels on August 31, the leaders of Armenia, Azerbaijan and the head of the European Council reached an agreement to continue substantive negotiations at the level of foreign ministers for a month around the development of a draft peace treaty.
Nikol Pashinyan, Charles Michel and Ilham Aliyev discussed the return of prisoners of war, the fate of the missing persons, delimitation and border security regional deblockade, as well as the settlement of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia and issues affecting the Karabakh problem. An agreement was also reached to hold a meeting of the Commission on Delimitation and Border Security in November in Brussels. The next leader level meeting will also take place in November.
"According to my estimates, apparently, this should foresee a discussion of the status of Artsakh, within the framework of the Madrid proposals, as well as a discussion of the Armenia-Azerbaijan agenda, which will include clarification of borders, unblocking of communications, as well as humanitarian issues such as prisoners of war, missing persons, demining. A peace treaty should resolve these three cases. However, I am not at all sure that it will be concluded due to the obvious inconsistency with the interests of Baku, for example, the clause providing for the clarification of the status of Artsakh itself," he noted.
According to the political scientist, as a precondition for cooperation with the EU, Brussels put forward a demand to Armenia and Azerbaijan to resolve the current conflict. Both Yerevan and Baku have their own reasons for maintaining the existing relationship with Brussels, which encourages them to demonstrate their readiness to move in the given direction.
"At the same time, as of today I don't see real opportunities, respectively, the basis for forecasting a common position following the results of the Brussels process. First of all, due to the unacceptability of its successful completion for the leadership of both Azerbaijan and Armenia. As for Aliyev, the referendum in Artsakh is unacceptable for him, and as for Pashinyan, the appearance of an international peacekeeping contingent in the region is contrary to Moscow’s interests, and his government cannot and does not want to oppose Moscow," Ghukasyan summed up.