Since the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991, and partly due to a decreased interest in the West, Russia has managed to become a regional superpower, exerting its influence over the other post-Soviet countries, writes James Wilson.
Russian attempts to cling to “past glory” has involved making other republics bend to its will and interests. Some tried to oppose it. Prime examples are Georgia, which Russia invaded in 2008, and Ukraine, chunks of which Russia occupied in 2014 before invading again in 2022. With Georgia’s mass protests in Tbilisi making today’s headlines across the world, over a controversial bill that the Georgian government it is trying to pass, Russia has once again reverted to its strategy of destabilisation and issuing official threats.
The proposed bill, named “Transparency of Foreign Funding”, would require non-governmental organisations in Georgia to register as "agents of foreign influence" if the funds they receive from abroad amount to more than 20% of their total revenue. The protests against this proposed bill have alarmed many in the Kremlin and its propaganda outlets, leading to open threats against Georgia from officials such as Dmitry Peskov – Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office and Presidential Press Secretary. In addition, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Russia released several statements threatening Georgia if the protests were to continue by reminding everyone what Russia did in Ukraine in 2014. Yet another curious source of threats to Georgia, with explicit calls for nuclear strikes, came from the editor-in-chief of RT news, the Kremlin’s largest propagandist media outlet - Margarita Simonyan.
Another conflict in which Russia is meddling in the Caucasus can have immense consequences but it is not being adequately covered by the media. This conflict is taking place in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and is as volatile as ever.
The Russian invasion of Georgia in 2008 was prompted by a very familiar “casus belli” – “the protection of Russian-aligned people in the territory of a foreign country”. This excuse has been used by Russian official statements in several other territories as well, creating breakaway republics some of which were promptly recognised by Russia and its allies, offering them military protection by intervening in any armed conflicts these “autonomous republics” would be embroiled in. Whether it be creating Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia, or Transnistria in parts of Moldova, or the most infamous example – the Donbass republics on Ukrainian territory.
The so-called “Nagorno-Karabakh” region, known in the Azeri language as Karabakh, is a UN-recognised Azerbaijani territory. There is a small separatist enclave populated by ethnic Armenians situated in the area. It was not recognised even by Armenia, which supports it. Since the 2020 war, in which Azerbaijan liberated much of this territory in that region after 30 years of Armenian occupation, Russian “peacekeepers” have been deployed to the region to stabilise the situation and prevent further bloodshed. However, seeing that Russia supported Armenian forces during the war, together with its ally, Iran, there are valid concerns regarding the true objective and commitment of the Russian peacekeepers in maintaining Azerbaijani territorial integrity in Karabakh. A situation that can draw parallels with some of the Russian-backed separatist “autonomous republics”.
On 5th March, an Armenian vehicle, bearing Armenian license plates and police personnel from the separatist enclave in Karabakh, managed to “slip past” Russian peacekeeping checkpoints along the Lachin road, carrying weapons on board. It was stopped by Azerbaijani troops, while moving along an unrecognised supply route into the separatist enclave. A shootout broke out and two Azerbaijani soldiers along with three people onboard the convoy were killed.
The Russian military was supposed to not let any weapons cross into the enclave. Yet after the shootout, pictures surfaced of the Armenian vehicle with visible military grade weapons hidden under seats in an attempt to smuggle them. A rearmament of separatists in Karabakh could lead to a grave escalation of the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, from where the weapons shipments originated.
What’s more, the Russian forces’ response to the incident was even faster than the Azerbaijani paramedics, sent to treat the wounded from the engagement. Russian reports on the incident were nowhere to be found, and no firefight was recorded to have occurred under the Russians’ watch.
It is not surprising – as it turns out, another convoy with weapons and even military vehicles was spotted on Friday, 10 March, on the road to the enclave by the Azerbaijani military. However, this time it was accompanied by the Russian “peacekeepers”.
Mainstream media today dedicates much air time to covering the Georgian protests, and the threatening Russian response, due to the Georgian people’s fight for democracy and against Moscow’s influence in the country. Georgia is crucial to the West for other reasons as well. Primarily, Georgia connects Azerbaijan with Turkey and the Black Sea, meaning any exports from Azerbaijan, such as energy resources, can reach Europe. With the sanctions on Russia in effect, many European countries are looking for alternatives to Russian oil and gas. Luckily, Azerbaijan, with its vast resources in the Caspian Sea and access to Central Asian supply, can be that alternative. But for that to happen, Georgia is to remain a link in the supply route to Europe.
Escalation in Karabakh due to Russian destabilisation efforts could lead to another round of fighting, hurting Azerbaijan’s trading with Europe through Georgia, which is why it is crucial to understand the situation in Karabakh as it is in reality. Support must be ensured for both the Georgian protests and the Azerbaijani struggle against the break away separatists on its territory.