Tuesday, Armenia Sees High Risk Of ‘Escalation’ In Karabakh • Astghik Bedevian Nagorno-Karabakh - Azerbaijani servicemen stand guard at a checkpoint next to the Lachin corridor, December 26, 2022. Armenia continued to accuse Azerbaijan on Tuesday of planning to provoke fresh fighting in Nagorno-Karabakh or along the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. “I consider the possibility of escalation to be high,” Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian told a news conference. Pashinian pointed to Azerbaijan’s “increasingly aggressive rhetoric” and “some other information” which he refused to disclose. In recent days, the Azerbaijani military has repeatedly accused Armenia of transporting military personnel and weapons to Karabakh and threatened to take “resolute” actions to stop the alleged shipments. Yerevan has strongly denied the allegations, saying that Baku may be preparing the ground for launching offensive military operations. There has also been an increase in ceasefire violations reported by the conflicting sides. Pashinian said a key task of the Armenian side now is to prove that “we are not the authors of that escalation.” He said the recent deployment of European Union monitors on the Armenian side of the border will serve that purpose. He expressed hope that Russian peacekeepers in Karabakh will also deter Baku. Opposition lawmakers scoffed at Pashinian’s remarks. They said the heightened risk of another military escalation in the conflict underscores his administration’s failure to rebuild Armenia’s armed forces after the 2020 war in Karabakh. “Our public has seen three attacks on Armenia since the 44-day war,” said Tigran Abrahamian of the Pativ Unem bloc. “In all three cases, with a few exceptions, it saw a state of disarray, the loss of hundreds of lives and hundreds of hectares of [Armenian] territory. That is to say that a deterrent, preventive mechanism, which Armenia was able to create, has not been created.” Gegham Manukian of the Hayastan alliance similarly claimed that Pashinian has been busy trying to cement his hold on power instead of strengthening the country’s defense and security system. In Manukian’s words, the deployment of 100 or so European monitors could on the contrary add to security threats facing Armenia because it was strongly opposed by Russia. “[Pashinian] has argued that he invited the Europeans so that they monitor the actions of Armenia and the Russian [military] contingent and assure Azerbaijan that Armenia and Russia plan no military actions against Azerbaijan,” Manukian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. Former NATO Chief Urges EU Pressure On Azerbaijan • Anush Mkrtchian Armenia - Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen stands at an Armenian border checkpoint leading to the Lachin corridor, . Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen urged the European Union to pressure Azerbaijan to end its “inhuman” blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh during a visit to Armenia on Tuesday. He met with the country’s leaders before visiting an Armenian border checkpoint at the entrance to the Lachin corridor that has been blocked by Azerbaijani government-backed protesters for the last three months. Rasmussen also toured the Armenian resort town of Jermuk which was shelled by Azerbaijani troops during last September’s heavy fighting on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. He told reporters that he wanted to “watch with my own eyes the impact of Azerbaijan’s aggression against Armenia.” Rasmussen, who headed NATO from 2009-2014, went on to condemn the Azerbaijani blockade of the sole road connecting Karabakh to Armenia. “The blockade … means there is a lack of food and life-saving medicine in Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said. “We are faced with a humanitarian crisis that could develop into a humanitarian catastrophe.” “That is why I send a very clear message today to President [Ilham] Aliyev of Azerbaijan: dissolve the blockade today immediately,” added Rasmussen. The EU, he said, must put “maximum pressure” on Baku for that purpose. “The European Union has made an energy deal with Azerbaijan, and that could be used as a platform for critical dialogue with the government of Azerbaijan,” he said. “It may be that President Aliyev is an autocrat like [Russian] President Putin, but I believe that President Aliyev would not like to be put into the same position to become an international pariah like President Putin.” Armenia - Former NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen speaks to journalists in Jermuk, . Like the United States and Russia, the EU has repeatedly called for the reopening of Karabakh’s land link with Armenia. The Azerbaijani government has dismissed such calls, saying that the protesters are right to demand that it be allowed to inspect “illegal” mining in Karabakh. The EU foreign policy chief, Josep Borrell, made clear in late January that the 27-nation bloc is not considering imposing sanctions on Baku despite the continuing blockade. The head of the EU’s executive body, Ursula von der Leyen, described Azerbaijan as a “key partner in our efforts to move away from Russian fossil fuels” when she signed the energy deal mentioned by Rasmussen last July. The EU is to double imports of Azerbaijani natural gas by 2027. Rasmussen, who had also served as Denmark’s prime minister from 2001-2009, visited Armenia in his capacity as the founder of Rasmussen Global (RG), a European political consultancy advising governments and corporations. It is not clear whether the Armenian government is now among its clients. The former NATO chief met with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian, Defense Minister Suren Papikian and the secretary of Armenia’s Security Council, Armen Grigorian, on Monday. He said he arrived in the South Caucasus at the invitation of its government to help boost its ties with the West. “It’s our intention to have very strong cooperation with the government of Armenia,” Rasmussen said, adding that RG will specifically seek to enhance Yerevan’s “political dialogue” with the EU. Armenia’s Car Imports Booming Due To Sanctions On Russia • Satenik Kaghzvantsian Armenia - Car carrier trailers line up near a customs terminal outside Gyumri, Armenia’ national customs service is struggling to cope with rapidly growing imports of cars that appear to be mostly re-exported to Russia as a result of Western sanctions against Moscow. Western automakers pulled out of the Russian market following the start of the war in Ukraine, pushing up the prices of new cars and forcing many Russians to switch to cheaper used models. Car traders from other nations, including Armenia, rushed to take advantage of the market opportunity. According to the State Revenue Committee (SRC), the number of cars imported to Armenia jumped nearly six-fold to almost 45,300 last year. The sharp increase is continuing unabated as evidenced by long lines of mainly second-hand cars formed outside the country’s main customs terminal processing imported vehicles. The owners and drivers of car carrier trailers lined up near the facility close to Gyumri complain that they spend days waiting to pay import duties and complete the customs clearance process. “More than 200 customs clearances a day are carried out here right now,” Rustam Badasian, the head of the SRC, told reporters when he visited the Gyumri terminal at the weekend. “There is a huge influx [of imported cars] which we haven’t seen before.” Badasian acknowledged that most of the vehicles brought to Armenia these are re-exported to Russia. Armenia’s membership in the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) means that they are exempt from import duties in Russia and other EEU member states. Armenia - Newly imported cars at a customs facility outside Gyumri, March 13, 2023. One Armenian car trader, who did not want to be identified, said the import boom began “in the middle of last year.” “My guess is that 70-80 percent of the cars are then exported to the Russian Federation,” he told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. Other goods manufactured in third countries are also re-exported from Armenia to Russia due to the Western sanctions. This explains why Armenian exports to Russia nearly tripled, to $2.4 billion, in 2022. Official Armenian statistics also shows that individual cash remittances from Russia to Armenia quadrupled to almost $3.2 billion in January-November 2022. The soaring trade with and cash flows from Russia are the main reason why the Armenian economy grew by 12.6 percent last year. “We are not violating any international obligations or legal norms,” Badasian said when asked about suggestions that Armenia is one of the countries that are helping the Russians evade the crippling sanctions. Earlier this month, the U.S. departments of Justice, Treasury and Commerce issued a joint “compliance note” warning companies about the risk of violating U.S. sanctions on Moscow. The notice said that third-party intermediaries have commonly used China, Armenia, Turkey and Uzbekistan as “transshipment points” to Russia as well as Belarus. Pashinian Noncommittal On Karabakh’s Self-Determination • Ruzanna Stepanian Armenia - Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian speaks during a news conference in Yerevan, . Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian on Tuesday pointedly declined to back Nagorno-Karabakh residents’ right to self-determination, highlighting a major change in Armenia’s traditional policy on the conflict with Azerbaijan. Successive Armenian governments for decades championed that right in peace talks mediated by the United States, Russia and France. A year ago, Pashinian and other senior Armenian officials stopped making references to the principle of self-determination it in their public statements. They have since spoken instead of the need to ensure “the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh,” fuelling opposition allegations that Yerevan is now ready to agree to Azerbaijani control over the Armenian-populated region. Pashinian stuck to that line during news conference in Yerevan. “We have said and keep saying that the issue of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s rights and security is extremely important to us,” he said. “That is one of our key goals.” “It’s up to the people and the government of Nagorno-Karabakh to decide the framework of the Nagorno-Karabakh people’s rights and security,” added Pashinian. Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s office said on Monday that it is inviting “representatives of Karabakh’s Armenian community” to visit Baku for further talks on Karabakh’s “reintegration” into Azerbaijan. The authorities in Stepanakert rejected the offer, saying that the talks should take place at the Karabakh headquarters of Russian peacekeepers and focus on “humanitarian, technical and humanitarian issues.” Karabakh’s five leading political groups issued late on Monday a joint statement demanding that Yerevan refrain from calling into question “the Artsakh people’s right to self-determination.” They said Pashinian’s administration must comply with a 1992 parliamentary act that bans Armenia’s government from signing any document that would recognize Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh. Pashinian did not clarify whether he could sign such a document. He again called for a direct dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert. The prime minister charged at the same time that Baku is seeking a “mandate to perpetrate genocide or ethnic cleansing in Karabakh.” Pashinian stated in January that the international community has always regarded Karabakh as an integral part of Azerbaijan. The claim was denounced by the Armenian opposition and Karabakh’s leadership. Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2023 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.