On March 21st, two official IRGC Telegram-channels, Sepah_pasdaran and IRGCQODS Niru-ye Qods channel, posted direct threats to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev.

According to the posts, the developments in Iran’s northern frontier are very much against Iranian interests, as they indicate that the intentions of Baku – puppeteered of course by the “Zionist regime” – are “for a hostile action against Armenia.” The post says that “the message of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran to Baku and its supporters is clear: Mr. Aliyev, it will cost you a lot.”

The threatening message begins with an ad hominem argument against Aliyev, claiming his mental state is declining due to “illusions caused by indiscriminate consumption of psychedelics.” The post continues to explain how the Azerbaijani president’s judgment, clouded by the aforementioned illusions, is flawed, and his belief “that by attacking the border areas of Iran and Armenia, it can take control of these areas and by closing the communication route between Iran, Russia and Europe, it will receive concessions from Iran and turned to blackmail.”

The IRGC statement ends with a warning – “In case of (your) stupidity in the Caucasus, even if the whole world calls you brother and all the nuclear states support you, the arrows of the archers of this separated piece of land will sew this land back to the homeland.” This final clear-cut threat is aimed at the whole of Azerbaijan, ensuring the IRGC will personally be overseeing the annexation of Azerbaijani territory in case of a war.

Niru-ye Qods channel adds that “for any Baku's action to change the geopolitical borders, Iran will seek a military response,” while Israel might attack targets in Iran “in defense of its minor adopted son – Baku.”

Such threats to Aliyev personally are unprecedented: never before has any official Iranian body dared to address the Azerbaijani leader like this, especially pointing out his connection to Israel. Several times anti-Semitic caricatures, depicting Aliyev as a stereotypical Jew with a huge hooked nose, were published in the media. This kind of a threat is, naturally, another step towards serious military escalation.

A curious detail to mention is how this IRGC statements puts Armenia on the forefront of the issue. An attack on Armenia is enough of a casus belli for Iran, as both countries have extensive diplomatic and military ties.

“Iran considers the security of Armenia and the region as its own security, and the decision to open the consulate-general in the town of Gafan is the important manifestation that Iran is displaying of the millennia-old relations with the Armenian people,” said Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian during the inauguration of the Iranian consulate-general in Gafan in October 2022.

Additionally, Iran sees Armenia as its only trade route to the EU, so it is willing to go to war in order to preserve its land connection and Armenian territorial integrity, including the Armenian-populated enclave in the territory of Azerbaijan itself. 

According to the New Eastern Europe Journal, Iran’s support for the Russian war against Ukraine is being undertaken with the help of Armenia, which is allowing Moscow to evade sanctions through the supply of Iranian drones and missiles via Armenian air space and airports. Iran Air Cargo, a subsidiary of Iran Air, used Yerevan’s Zvartnots International, a civilian airport, for that purpose.