The changing global order poses significant challenges for nations worldwide, with growing competition and instability emerging as key features of the coming years. The situation in Eurasia is a prime example of this transformation, with the war in Ukraine, growing tensions between China and the US, and upheaval in Afghanistan, among other events, leading to uncertainty and potential conflict in the region.
Small states like Armenia are particularly vulnerable to these changes, as demonstrated by their recent defeat in the Nagorno Karabakh war. Armenia had previously prioritized an alliance with Russia but failed to account for shifting geopolitics in the area, resulting in a military loss to Azerbaijan and subsequent incursions into Armenian territory.
Armenia now faces multiple challenges as it seeks to defend its borders and maintain its independence. In this context, the country must reassess its foreign, defense, and security policy and seek new partners and alliances. One potential opportunity lies in developing closer ties with Iran and India, as both nations share Armenia’s interest in countering Turkish dominance in the region.
These partnerships could offer a much-needed strategic advantage for Armenia, with Iran’s recent military drills along the Azerbaijan border serving as a reminder that verbal statements alone may not be sufficient to deter aggression. As the global order continues to shift, Armenia must adapt quickly to ensure its future security and stability.