Tuesday, May 2, 2023 Russia Sees No Alternative To Moscow-Brokered Deal In Armenia-Azerbaijan Settlement The Kremlin in Moscow, Russia (file photo) Russia believes that an Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement can be reached only by implementing the 2020 ceasefire agreement brokered by Moscow, a Kremlin spokesman said on Tuesday. Dmitry Peskov’s remarks came a day after the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan sat down in Washington for what United States officials expect to be marathon talks to hammer out a deal to normalize relations between the two countries at loggerheads over Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia brokered a ceasefire agreement that stopped a deadly six-week war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the mostly ethnic Armenian-populated region in November 2020. The deal brought about 2,000 Russian peacekeepers to Nagorno-Karabakh to protect some 120,000 ethnic Armenians living there and ensure their free movement along a five-kilometer-wide strip of land that connects Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia and is known as the Lachin Corridor. Azerbaijan set up a checkpoint on the corridor on April 23, tightening the effective blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh and drawing accusations from Yerevan and Stepanakert that it violates the terms of the ceasefire agreement. Authorities in both Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh urged Russian peacekeepers to “live up to their commitments” under the ceasefire agreement and achieve the removal of the Azerbaijani roadblock. Russia said it continued to negotiate with Azerbaijani authorities regarding the matter, having described Baku’s “unilateral actions” in the Lachin Corridor as unacceptable. In his remarks Peskov, a spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, said that assistance in resolving the situation between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be welcomed, “but only on the basis of trilateral agreements concluded together with the Russian Federation.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov “There is no alternative to these agreements,” he said, as quoted by Russian media. “The resolution of the existing problems between the two countries and possible development of some joint actions and steps aimed at reducing tensions in the region are primarily possible on the basis of the tripartite documents that were signed together with Russia. So far, there has been no other legal framework that would contributed to the settlement. Thus, so far these tripartite documents have absolutely no alternative,” the Kremlin spokesman said. Commenting on the meeting of Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, of Armenia, and Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov, of Azerbaijan, hosted by U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington, Peskov said: “Of course, any assistance that can promote a settlement on this basis [tripartite documents] is welcomed. But we also know that there are various attempts that blur the basis for a settlement, which in the future may not give a result. Let’s hope that in this case we are talking about the first case.” Officials in Washington believe that peace is possible to achieve between Armenia and Azerbaijan and stress the importance of direct dialogue between the two countries. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (C) hosting a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (L) and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in Washington. May 1, 2023. An unnamed official in the U.S. Department of State said on Monday that Mirzoyan-Bayramov talks could be held over the course of “a few days” and that discussions were expected “throughout the week.” Asked about Russia’s position on the U.S.-led dialogue, the diplomat in Washington said. “We will be disappointed if they take it negatively.” “The most important thing is that the parties communicate with each other regardless of where,” the official said, adding that “a lasting, balanced and dignified peace between the parties” is the goal. Last week, official Yerevan confirmed that there is an agreement on holding talks of the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan hosted by their Russian counterpart in the time to come. Armenia’s Foreign Ministry did not, however, indicate a specific date for such talks. Arman Yeghoyan, a pro-government member of the Armenian parliament, reaffirmed on Tuesday that a Mirzoyan-Bayramov meeting was also due in Moscow. He told local media that the Washington meeting was in no conflict with the upcoming meeting in Moscow. New Census Shows Armenia Population Drops Below 3 Million • Robert Zargarian People in a park in Yerevan, Armenia, July 2022. Armenia’s permanent population is just below 3 million people, according to preliminary data of a census conducted by the authorities last October and published this week. The Statistical Committee says that the figure of 2,928,914 also includes those people who usually live in the country, but have been absent from it for up to a year. It is by about 90,000 people less than Armenia’s permanent population was according to a similar census conducted in 2011. The population that was physically in Armenia at the time of the census in 2022 was by about 233,000 less than 12 years ago. Last year’s census of the population was third to be conducted in Armenia since the country gained independence in 1991. Originally it was due to be held in 2020, but had to postpone twice – first until 2021 and then until 2022 – because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Specialists in Armenia have not yet done any in-depth analysis of the results of the latest census of the population, pending the final data to be presented by the authorities. But some demographers already see a troubling pattern. This is the first time in independent Armenia that the number of the country’s permanent population, though slightly, but dropped below 3 million. Candidate of historical sciences, ethno-geographer Artashes Boyajian, who was involved in both previous census of the population in 2001 and 2011 as a supervising enumerator, says that whereas until 2018 the population of Armenia was decreasing due to outmigration, it is the declining birthrate that became a problem afterwards. “After 2018, in a number of provinces of the Republic of Armenia, in particular, in Lori, for the first time a negative natural growth balance, that is when the number of births is lower than the number of deaths, was registered. The same was registered in the Shirak province in 2020 as well as in a number of other provinces of the republic,” Boyajian told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service. The current government of Armenia and its predecessors have set targets for the population of Armenia. In 2020, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinian unveiled the nation’s strategy until 2050, talking about the goal of increasing the country’s permanent population to at least 5 million people. According to Boyajian, despite this lofty goal, the State has failed to implement any serious demographic policy aimed at its realization. “In the period under review some steps have been taken to promote population growth, but it has no qualitative and quantitative effect,” the specialist said. Declining birthrates are currently a pattern typical for most former Soviet states given the demographic decline brought on by the collapse of the USSR in 1991 and ensuing social and economic hardships of the populations in newly independent countries for years to come. The United Nations projects that Armenia’s population by 2050 will fall to 2.6 million. U.S. Upbeat On Peace Prospects Amid Armenia-Azerbaijan Talks U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken (C) hosting a meeting between Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan (L) and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov in Washington. May 1, 2023. United States officials have struck an optimistic note about prospects of reaching peace in the South Caucasus as top diplomatic representatives of Armenia and Azerbaijan sat down on Monday for what are expected to be marathon talks in Washington this week. After welcoming Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan and Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov at the George P. Schultz National Foreign Affairs Training Center in the U.S. capital on May 1, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reiterated on Twitter that dialogue between Armenia and Azerbaijan is “key to reaching a lasting peace in the South Caucasus region.” Vedant Patel, principal deputy spokesperson at the Department of State, expounded on Washington’s vision for prospects of peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. “We believe that peace is possible between these two countries, and we are glad to be welcoming them,” Patel said during a press briefing on May 1 when asked about the Mirzoyan-Bayramov talks. “We think that direct dialogue through diplomacy is key here… This is something that the Secretary has been deeply engaged on; he’s had the opportunity to convene trilateral meetings as well as speak to the foreign ministers and leaders of these two countries. And we will continue to be engaged on this issue,” he added. Patel would not be drawn into speculation about how long the Washington-hosted peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan would last. Earlier, a senior Department of State official privy to the negotiations told RFE/RL’s Armenian Service that bilateral talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan would be held over the course of “a few days.” The official, who did not wish to be named, said: “We expect discussions throughout the week. Our goal is to make sure that the ministers are able to sit down and talk to each other.” Department of State officials also confirmed that the situation around the Lachin Corridor, the only road linking Nagorno-Karabakh with Armenia that Azerbaijan effectively closed on April 23 by setting up a checkpoint, was one of the topics raised at the Washington meetings. “We have not parsed our words about the need for the free flow of traffic and people and commerce through the Lachin corridor. That continues to be the case and it’s something that we will continue to raise directly with our Armenian counterparts,” Patel said. Reposted on ANN/Armenian News with permission from RFE/RL Copyright (c) 2023 Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, Inc. 1201 Connecticut Ave., N.W. Washington DC 20036.