Azerbaijanis call it the "Homeland War". The Second Karabakh War, which lasted 44 days and was supported by the Turkish military intelligence, has fundamentally changed many things in the region. Azerbaijan regained its homeland territories while Türkiye's influence in the Caucasus region increased. Iran suffered a strategic setback. Armenia was forced to return the lands it unjustly seized 30 years ago. The Western world could not intervene in this development that happened outside its control and was left out of the game.
A short parenthesis… Last week, the foreign ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia met at the White House. In the coming days, Azerbaijani President Aliyev and Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan will meet in Brussels. The West is trying to get involved in the game by preparing the ground for such meetings.
Closing the parenthesis, the Second Karabakh War was also the first conventional warfare in which Turkish drones were used, as they were previously tested in Syria and Libya. The success of the UCAVs has led to the rewriting of the war doctrine.
Perhaps the most important impact of the Karabakh War was the favorable ground it created for regional peace. Those who expected more violence after the war were wrong. Ankara and Baku put forward a peace project that included Armenia to consolidate their gains and prevent further conflicts. They forced Armenia to embrace peace with a win-win approach. In this context, a normalization process was initiated between Ankara and Yerevan.
However, things are not going exactly as planned. While peace talks continue, reports of conflict occasionally come from the Azerbaijan-Armenia border. For example, three Azerbaijani soldiers lost their lives in a recent hot conflict.
The Nemesis Monument opened in Yerevan was an attempt to dynamite the fragile process. The monument is dedicated to Armenian assassins who targeted Turkish political and military figures. This was a malicious, provocative, and purposeful attempt.
As soon as Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu received the news of the opening of the monument, he activated the sanction card. "We will not allow flights from Armenia to third countries, including VIP flights," he said.
What does this mean?
"In flights to Armenia from third countries, Turkish airspace will not be used. Planes taking off from Yerevan and heading to, for example, a European country, will have to find a longer and more costly route. This includes VIP flights as well.
However, Ankara's reaction will not be limited to this. It is stated that more effective steps will be taken if the Armenian administration does not prevent such provocative actions. With this initial move, Ankara is sending the message, "If you don't come to your senses, we will also block direct flights." Saying "if provocative actions continue, the normalization process will end."
So, did Yerevan receive this message? The first statement on the issue came from Pashinyan. Saying that the monument was opened by civil society organizations, Pashinyan used the _expression_, "The government did not make this decision. It was a wrong decision, and its implementation was also wrong." Armenian Parliament Speaker Simonyan also said, "The monument is not a manifestation of Armenia's foreign policy."
It is not expected that Yerevan will remove the monument from its place due to domestic political reasons. However, it is predicted that Pashinyan and his team will be more sensitive to such provocations that could affect the normalization process in the future. As one source put it, "The stone we threw reached its target."
ANKARA DOES NOT ACCEPT PRECONDITIONS
Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu was in Moscow the day before yesterday as part of normalization talks with Syria. Türkiye, Russia, Iran, and Syria's intelligence chiefs, as well as Defense Ministers, came together in a quadrilateral meeting to discuss normalization opportunities.
The Turkish delegation had made comprehensive preparations before going to Moscow. A message was given to the Syrian regime and other parties, "Let's cooperate on terrorism, terrorism is a common enemy." The importance of stability and the political process for Syrians to return to their country was emphasized at the meeting. Since the first meeting, the Syrian regime has continued to insist on "withdrawing Turkish troops from Syria." As I have written before, Ankara cannot and will not accept this while the terrorist threat continues. Türkiye does not demand a precondition in this regard. It also strongly expresses its support for Syria's territorial integrity.
The concrete result of the meeting was a decision to prepare a roadmap for the continuation of negotiations. The parties will work on the roadmap and present it to the leaders. This is a new stage in the normalization process. But there is still a long way to go."
https://www.yenisafak.com/en/columns/yahya-bostan/armenia-got-the-message-ankaras-warning-sends-a-clear-signal-to-yerevan-3664242