- In Daily Brief
- May 25, 2023
Russia will host the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan for a meeting in Moscow today.
Two years after the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, which concluded after Russian mediation, the post-Soviet neighbors are gathering to hold high-level talks amidst continued tensions. Earlier this month, border skirmishes broke out after Yerevan reported that Azerbaijani drone strikes had injured two Armenian soldiers. While the leaders recently met in Brussels, they have accepted Russia’s proposal to hold a trilateral meeting today in Moscow to negotiate a potential peace treaty.
For Moscow, this meeting bears a special diplomatic significance amidst its ongoing military incursion in Ukraine, which is currently at a standstill. Hence, Moscow desires to reaffirm its strong foothold in the South Caucasus during the short to medium-term. Russia’s concern accelerated after ongoing attempts from the West to undermine Russian influence in the region and mediate a peace treaty between Yerevan and Baku. In this framework, irked by the large swaths of land it lost after the war, and discontent with Russia’s post-war efforts as a mediator, Yerevan will likely move closer to the West. A peace treaty is therefore highly unlikely to occur given the current circumstances.