The warring states of Armenia and Azerbaijan are negotiating a peace agreement with international mediation, which could come about by autumn. Chancellor Scholz is now taking part in the talks.
Dry, cracked earth can be seen where the Sarsang reservoir should still be well filled at this time of year – in northern Nagorno-Karabakh. The photos taken by a local journalist confirm what can also be seen on satellite images: the water level has been falling rapidly since January.
A lack of precipitation contributed only a small part to this. Rather, it is political decisions in the conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan that could lead to a massive energy and environmental crisis in the coming weeks.
According to Armenian sources, since January the reservoir’s power plant has had to replace the electricity that otherwise travels from Armenia to Nagorno-Karabakh via overhead power lines. These cables run across territory retaken by Azerbaijan in the 2020 war. Armenia complains that Azerbaijan does not allow the lines to be repaired.
The heartland of Nagorno-Karabakh is an Armenian-inhabited enclave protected by Russian troops. However, these troops are largely watching as Azerbaijan ramps up the pressure and worsens the supply situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.
However, Azerbaijan’s actions are also damaging to the country itself. Because the water from the Sarsang reservoir used for the electricity supply will also be lacking for irrigation in the summer for Azerbaijani farmers.
The case shows how urgent a solution to the conflict between Armenians and Azerbaijanis is. In addition to Russia, the USA and the EU are involved in efforts to reach a peace agreement.
During the European Political Community Summit in Moldova today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron will accompany a meeting of representatives of both states: Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev.
Since Aliyev accused Macron of an “anti-Azerbaijani attitude”, Scholz should act as a counterweight to Macron. Macron had accused Azerbaijan of a massive attack on Armenian territory in September 2022 and promised Armenia support for its territorial integrity. In view of the large community of diaspora Armenians in France, Macron’s statement is motivated not least by domestic politics.
Aliyev, on the other hand, leaves no doubt that he wants to dictate the conditions for peace and rhetorically increased the pressure before the talks in Moldova. He called for the government and parliament in Nagorno-Karabakh to be dissolved. The Armenians there must become “normal, loyal citizens of Azerbaijan”.
Prime Minister Pashinyan has already given up the claim to independence for Nagorno-Karabakh. For more than a year he has stopped talking about the Armenians’ right to self-determination in Nagorno-Karabakh, but about the recognition of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. On May 22, he made it clear that he also recognized that Nagorno-Karabakh belongs to Azerbaijan, but that the Armenians there must be given rights and security.
The debate flared up again in Armenia as to who was to blame for the defeat in the 2020 war: Pashinyan, who was only elected in 2018, or the current opposition around politicians like ex-President Robert Kocharian, who himself comes from Nagorno-Karabakh. She had not used the years since the capture of Azerbaijani territory in the first war in the early 1990s to negotiate a stable peace. And it had failed to equip the military to match Azerbaijan’s modernized armed forces.
After losing the war in 2020, the opposition around Kocharian was able to mobilize thousands to protest against Pashinyan. Despite this, he was re-elected in 2021. Basically, everyone in Armenia is aware that Nagorno-Karabakh is lost for the country – and that the protecting power, Russia, is only pursuing its own interests. While Russia’s leadership around President Vladimir Putin wants to maintain its military presence, it shows that it sees a more important economic and political player in Azerbaijan than in Armenia.
However, political expert Eric Hacopian warns in Yerevan that there will only be lasting stability in the region if an agreement leads to a just peace for the Armenians. Otherwise there is a risk of a new, endless war.
He outlines the minimum conditions in the interview tagesschau.de So: Negotiations between the leadership of Nagorno-Karabakh and the regime in Baku would have to take place in an international format, mediated by the international community. The final agreement must be guaranteed by the international community. And there must be an international presence on the ground to protect the local population and enforce the details of the agreement.
Details of governance in Nagorno-Karabakh, possibly modeled on other conflict zones such as the Balkans, could be worked out later. It is crucial that Baku does not exercise “direct rule” over the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. Otherwise there is a threat of ethnic cleansing and, in the worst case, a new Srebrenica, Hacopian warns urgently.
In addition, the planned expansion of the infrastructure in the entire region must also be worthwhile for Armenia. It is with the prospect of security and economic recovery that Pashinyan is trying to convince the population of an agreement.
Aliyev, too, needs stability and economic prospects as Azerbaijan’s oil and gas resources will run out in the foreseeable future. In addition, after the last major attack on Armenia in September 2021, he apparently realized that he cannot currently achieve his goals with military offensives. The risk of an escalating confrontation is probably too great for the regional powers Iran, Turkey and Russia.
In this respect, there is a chance that, with appropriate international pressure, an agreement will be reached by the autumn that both countries can live with. The door to peace is a crack open.