- Reka Blakemore
The anticipated U.S.-hosted talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan have been postponed at Azerbaijan’s request. The negotiations, which were scheduled to take place this week, aimed to address the ongoing conflict between the two nations about the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The region, which is populated mainly by ethnic Armenians despite being located within the Azerbaijani state, has been the site of multiple human rights violations and the locus of a decades-long conflict.
State Department deputy spokesperson Vedant Patel confirmed in a press conference that the U.S. is still anticipating hosting the peace talks, emphasizing that “direct dialogue is key towards reaching a durable and dignified peace.” But the cancellation is a disappointing start to the negotiations, which were already projected to be contentious thanks to the longstanding tension.
“Even though the [Nagorno-Karabakh] region is recognized as a part of Azerbaijan, Armenia … will likely not sign a peace treaty with Azerbaijan unless [Azerbaijan] provides assurances about the security and safety of the Karabakh Armenians,” Heather Ashby, acting director for the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Center for Russia and Europe program, told VOA News. “Azerbaijan’s plan for incorporating Karabakh Armenians into Azerbaijan will play an important role in the peace talks.”
Making matters worse, Azerbaijan has blockaded the only path from the Nagorno-Karabakh region to Armenia, the Lachin corridor, creating a humanitarian crisis as residents are cut off from essential supplies.
Although the dispute over the Nagorno-Karabakh region was already brewing under Soviet rule, the conflict erupted after the fall of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s. Since then, there have been frequent outbreaks of violence between Azerbaijan and Armenia, interrupted by ceasefires and peace talks with various degrees of success. Violence broke out again over the territorial dispute in late 2022, and Azerbaijan blockaded the Lachin corridor in April.
Because this intractable conflict has been entrenched through decades of violence, direct negotiations will be necessary to address the issue. There must be a sustained dialogue between both parties that unpacks each side’s grievances and perceptions of events. This dialogue must include community members and leaders, rather than just officials, in order to meaningfully impact the conflict. Additionally, there must be an unbiased third-party mediator to these dialogues and negotiations. Historically, the U.S. and Russia have been key peacekeepers in the region, but both countries have now chosen a side and the war in Ukraine impacts their abilities to be honest brokers. Thus, another mediator should take over the mediation process. As the only other member of the Minsk group, which was established to resolve the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict, France seems to be the obvious choice.
This conflict serves as an excellent reminder of the importance of unbiased mediation. If the parties of a negotiation feel that the mediator has already chosen a side, they are much less likely to meaningfully participate in the conversation. In the short term, the Lachin corridor must be re-opened for humanitarian purposes, but a long-term plan for peace must include a sustained dialogue between both parties to unpack decades of harm and violence.