Azerbaijan seems to be waiting for an opportunity to restore its sovereignty over parts of Nagorno-Karabakh that are still under the ethnic Armenians’ control. Harsh threats from Baku suggest that the energy-rich South Caucasus nation might soon launch a military operation in the mountainous region where Armenians make up the majority of the population.
But how likely is another conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia?
Azerbaijani media have reportedly increased their pro-war rhetoric. Even the country’s President Ilham Aliyev allegedly threatened to attack Nagorno-Karabakh – a region that, in his view, is an “artificial construct created by the Soviet tyrant Joseph Stalin”.
From a purely military perspective, the Karabakh Armenians have zero chance of defeating the Azerbaijani military. Their armed forces heavily depend on supplies from Armenia. After Azerbaijan established full control over the Lachin corridor – the only land route linking Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh – the mountainous region became effectively surrounded by the Azerbaijani army.
Thus, if Azerbaijan launches a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh, the self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh (Artsakh being the Armenian name for Nagorno-Karabakh) will cease to exist within days.
A potential, although not very probable, Armenia’s interference would be unlikely to change the outcome of the conflict. In 2020, the two archenemies fought the 44-day war over Nagorno-Karabakh, and Azerbaijan came out as a clear winner. Baku managed to recapture significant portions of the region, as well as surrounding areas that were under the ethnic Armenian forces’ control. That, however, does not mean that Azerbaijan has completely resolved the Karabakh issue in its favor.
The self-proclaimed Republic of Artsakh still exists, although life in the region is reportedly becoming unbearable. Local Armenians claim that they are facing a humanitarian crisis, and that some 120,000 residents of Nagorno-Karabakh are trapped in an increasingly precarious situation that came as a result of the Lachin corridor crisis.
“There is almost no food left in the stores, medicines in pharmacies and hospitals are on the verge of exhaustion, and there is no possibility to provide medical assistance to seriously ill patients”, Nina Shahverdyan, an English teacher living in Nagorno-Karabakh told Global Comment.
Azerbaijan, on the other hand, insists that it has created conditions for the unhindered passage of Armenian residents of Nagorno-Karabakh through the Lachin border checkpoint. The country’s Foreign Ministry argues that there is “no basis for the claims of humanitarian threats against the Armenian residents living in the Karabakh region of Azerbaijan.”
“Presenting the temporary restriction of the operation of the Lachin border checkpoint regarding the investigations and the security measures implemented by Azerbaijan as a ‘blockade and ethnic cleansing’ after the provocation of Armenia is part of Armenia’s false propaganda”, the Ministry said.
Previously, Aliyev said that the installation of an Azerbaijani border checkpoint at the entrance of the Lachin corridor near the Armenian border on 23 April “should be a lesson” for the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh. Such a statement indicates that Baku likely aims to force the Armenian population to integrate into Azerbaijani society, which is something most of them refuse to do.
Authorities in Baku claim that the Karabakh Armenians could get Azerbaijani citizenship through the country’s state agency for public services ASAN, “if they comply with the nation’s laws”. According to Aliyev, Azerbaijan is willing to offer “concessions and amnesty” to Nagorno-Karabakh’s officials if they dissolve the region’s parliament and government, and apply for Azerbaijani citizenship. Such a move, however, would represent their de facto and de jure capitulation to Baku. But given that Karabakh Armenians are unlikely to be able to count on Armenia’s protection, sooner or later they may have a hard choice to make – to leave the region, or to stay and integrate into Azerbaijani society, hoping that they will not face ethnic cleansing.
After Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan repeatedly stated that Yerevan “fully recognizes Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity”, and that “there will not be a new escalation” in the region, it became clear that Yerevan does not aim to fight a new war for Nagorno-Karabakh. The landlocked country of around 2,8 million people has still not fully recovered from the defeat it suffered three years ago.
More importantly, unlike Azerbaijan, which is fully backed by its ally Turkey, Armenia cannot count on Russia’s support, despite the fact that it is a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Western countries, for their part, seek to establish strong energy ties with Azerbaijan, which is why they are unlikely to side with Armenia in case of new hostilities in the region. Quite aware of the current geopolitical reality, Pashinyan does not seem to have any good options regarding Nagorno-Karabakh. Even if he turns a blind eye to a potential Azerbaijani military incursion in the region, that will not end all the disputes between the two countries.
As soon as the Karabakh issue is resolved in Azerbaijani’s favor, Baku will start seriously pressuring Armenia to complete its section of the Nakhchivan corridor (also known as the Zangezur corridor) – a transportation route that would connect the mainland Azerbaijan with its exclave of Nakhchivan through Armenia’s southernmost province of Syunik. In other words, Yerevan would have to build road and rail links along its border with Iran, with no passport or customs controls, and allow Azerbaijan to establish a land connection not only with its exclave of Nakhchivan, but also with Turkey.
If Pashinyan accepts Baku’s demands, he will undoubtedly be under serious pressure from Iran, given that the Nakhchivan corridor poses an existential threat for the Islamic Republic. Therefore, at this point, Armenia’s position, as well as the position of the Karabakh Armenians, remains hopeless.
Finally, the only reason why Azerbaijan still has not launched a military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh is because it does not seem to have gotten the green light, or at least a tacit approval from the United States – the world’s only superpower. That is why, for the foreseeable future, Baku – being in a position of strength – is expected to continue using the “stick and carrot strategy” regarding Yerevan, aiming to force Pashinyan to make more concessions to Azerbaijan. But in the long-term, the military option remains on the table.