The story: In its latest diplomatic foray into South Caucasus politics, Iran has hosted Armenia’s foreign minister while endorsing peace talks between Baku and Yerevan. Coming after recent Iranian efforts to ease heightened tensions with Azerbaijan, Tehran's maneuvering underscores its desire to avoid pushing its estranged northwestern neighbor further toward Israel—and to protect its interests in the South Caucasus.
The coverage: Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian on July 24 met his Armenian counterpart Ararat Mirzoyan in Tehran.
- Amir-Abdollahian asserted that Iran supports peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan, welcoming the "recent progress in the negotiation process."
- At a joint press conference after the meeting, the top Iranian diplomat said "the time for war is over, and the time for a peace built on dialogue has arrived."
- Amir-Abdollahian also warned against the South Caucasus becoming an arena for a "power struggle" between states.
President Ebrahim Raisi expressed similar sentiments in a meeting with the visiting Armenian top diplomat.
- Raisi declared Iran's support for the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries in the region.
- Raisi also emphasized that Tehran does not accept any changes to borders or the geopolitics of the region. He further added that outside interference would only "exacerbate" existing issues.
In parallel, Iran has over the past week stepped up its efforts to pursue de-escalation with Azerbaijan.
- Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces, Mohammad Hossein Baqeri, said on July 19 that relations between Iran and Azerbaijan "are developing."
- Baqeri added that Iran has "no problems on border and security issues" with Azerbaijan. He made the remarks to reporters near Iran's border with the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhchivan.
Meanwhile, Iran’s government-run IRNA news agency on July 21 inaugurated an office and launched an Azerbaijani website during a visit to Baku by the outlet’s director.
- Azerbaijan's President Ilham Aliyev notably praised the move by IRNA, saying that it would "definitely contribute to the strengthening of relations between our countries."
- In a seemingly reciprocal measure, Azerbaijan’s state-run Azertac news agency will launch an office in Tehran, Iran’s Ambassador to Azerbaijan Abbas Mousavi told IRNA on July 21.
The context/analysis: Azerbaijan's deepening ties with Israel in past years have been a key source of contention between Baku and Tehran. Tensions have also flared more recently due to Azerbaijan's alleged efforts to sever Iran's land connection to Armenia.
- During the 2020 war between Azerbaijan and Armenia over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, Azerbaijan reportedly received help from Israel and Turkey. Iran, a longstanding ally of Armenia, cautiously refrained from taking sides during the war.
- Azerbaijan seized large territories during the 44-day conflict. The war ended with a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russia. As part of this accord, Armenia agreed to establish a corridor in its southern Syunik region, which borders Iran. The Zangazur Corridor would create a link between the Azerbaijani mainland and the Nakhchivan exclave.
- Iranian media view the overland transport corridor as a Turkey-backed move to disconnect Iran from Armenia as Ankara seeks to expand its influence in the South Caucasus. In this context, Iranian officials have on repeated occasions sternly warned against "border changes" in the region.
Azerbaijan and Iran have engaged in a war of words that has escalated into military drills along their border.
The already tense relations between Baku and Tehran took a turn for the worse following a series of developments earlier this year.
- On Jan. 27, a fatal attack on the Azerbaijani embassy in Tehran resulted in the death of the diplomatic facility’s head of security. Iran blamed the incident on a personal dispute. Rejecting the Iranian explanation, Azerbaijan ordered the evacuation of its embassy.
- Further fueling tensions, Azerbaijan in late March opened an embassy in Israel, an arch-rival of Iran. The move followed a reported surge in military ties between Baku and Tel Aviv.
- In early April, Azerbaijan expelled four Iranian diplomats. This resulted in Tehran taking reciprocal action a month later.
The border between Armenia and Iran is of high importance to both countries.
- The merely 48 km (29.8 miles) frontier has been described as a “lifeline” for Armenia, which finds itself sandwiched between Turkey and Azerbaijan.
- The Armenian border provides Iran with a dependable overland transit route to Georgia and beyond. This is particularly of high value for Tehran at times when relations with Baku and Ankara experience turbulence. Moreover, Iran considers the South Caucasus as a historical zone of influence and sees any loss of a land border with the countries there as a threat to this broader stature.
- Iran is additionally wary of the ongoing dissemination of separatist pro-Turkic discourse in its northwest, where ethnic Azeri communities reside.
The future: An armed conflict between Azerbaijan and Iran, however unlikely, could quickly come to involve multiple external actors. It could also mean a second major confrontation in the South Caucasus, which is still reeling from the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war.
- Despite high tensions, the recent conciliatory maneuvering indicates that both Baku and Tehran wish to avoid an all-out confrontation.
- The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a project geared to connect Russia and India via Iran and the Gulf, passes through Azerbaijan. The latter is a strong incentive for Tehran to pursue improved relations with Baku, especially as transit revenues are key to the Raisi administration’s economic ambitions.
- Iran is likely to continue to seek to strike a balance between maintaining its close relations with Armenia without worsening relations with Azerbaijan.