“The future belongs to Armenia more than Azerbaijan” – Armenian analyst

“The future belongs to Armenia more than Azerbaijan, but it will take several years to achieve real results,” political scientist and head of the Center for Regional Studies Richard Kirakosyan, commenting on the reforms in the defense sector of Armenia, said.

In his opinion, Armenia is too weak and lags behind the Azerbaijani Armed Forces, so it should invest more in quality, not quantity, that is, “in professionalism and modernization.” The political scientist welcomes the government’s decision to purchase weapons from India and not rely on “poor quality weapons from unreliable sources such as Russia.”

On the air of Radio Azatutyun (Freedom), Kirakosyan also talked about the settlement of Armenian-Azerbaijani relations, the possible signing of a peace treaty, the blockade of the Lachin corridor, the position of the United States, Europe and Russia.

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Kirakosyan commented on the results of the UN Security Council meeting, which was convened at the request of Armenia “in connection with the deterioration of the humanitarian situation in Nagorno-Karabakh as a result of the blockade of the Lachin corridor by Azerbaijan.” The political scientist considers it important, but insufficient, that Baku had to respond to Yerevan’s diplomatic initiative.

Invites the government of Armenia to think about other steps, in particular

• “refuse to negotiate until Azerbaijan ends the blockade of the Lachin corridor,
• consider the possibility of air communication with Nagorno-Karabakh without a real risk of military aggression.”

Explaining the essence of the speech at the meeting of the UN Security Council of the representative of Russia, who promoted the position of Baku, Kirakosyan said:

“Russia’s position now is to save face. She supports the idea of the Aghdam corridor [we are talking about Azerbaijan’s offer to the Armenians of NK to use the route through its territory through Aghdam instead of the Lachin corridor linking the unrecognized republic with Armenia], in fact, admitting her own humiliation, because she was unable to fulfill her obligations under the terms of the ceasefire agreement”.

The analyst regards the blocking of the Lachin corridor, as a result of which 120,000 people are trying to survive in the conditions of a humanitarian catastrophe, as a war against civilians:

“If you look into the current situation, then we are dealing with a medieval siege, a blockade of Nagorno-Karabakh in the style of the Game of Thrones series. The cause of hunger and loss of life is not a drought, not a natural disaster, but a catastrophe created by man.”

According to him, what is happening is not new, but “another Azerbaijani escalation, the target of which is not the military but the civilian population.”

Speaking about the possible signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan, Richard Kirakosyan stressed:

“Judging by the internal political events in Azerbaijan, the current authorities need to constantly have a conflict and an enemy. I am much more interested and worried not about the peace process or the peace agreement, but about what will happen the next day. It will not be enough for Azerbaijan that it will receive after the signing of the peace treaty.”

“It was a mistake to allow Turkey to put forward preconditions in the process of normalizing relations with Armenia,” Kirakosyan said. Turkey’s precondition, he said, is not to do anything, not to take steps to normalize relations with Armenia until a peace treaty is signed between Armenia and Azerbaijan. At the same time, he believes that Turkey is very unhappy with its own weakness in relation to the now dominant Azerbaijan:

“It should be remembered that Azerbaijan is now the number one foreign direct investor in Turkey. He gained weight and influence during the economic crisis.”

Richard Kirakosyan believes that after the elections held in Turkey, “Armenia has become more important for Turkey”:

“Because Russia has actually excluded Turkey from all projects for the restoration of trade and transport. Normalizing relations with Armenia is the only way for Turkey to restore its regional role in the economy and trade.”

He believes that Turkey should not be perceived as “as strong as it was before”, now it is much more vulnerable, and this is proved by the events around Cyprus.

Regarding Turkey’s military support to Azerbaijan, he emphasizes that now it is much less than the help from Israel.

The expert believes that unrest is possible in Azerbaijan, given the “precedent of a military coup in the 90s, as well as the presence of a minister of defense with dangerous ambitions, who receives the support of Turkey.”

According to him, changes in Azerbaijan are “guaranteed, but most of them will be negative” for the Armenian side:

“The question now is not whether there will be an “explosion” inside Azerbaijan, but when and how it will happen. I think Azerbaijan’s looming instability is being taken into account and has become a cause for concern in Washington, Brussels and Moscow.”

Victory in the 2020 Karabakh war, according to Kirakosyan, is “defective to a dangerous degree for the Azerbaijani authorities, and Aliyev is walking a tightrope of nationalism and is between competing elements inside Baku, supported by Russia and Turkey.” He thinks the tipping point is obvious:

“We have seen in recent weeks that even supporters of the Aliyev government have been arrested. That is, the Aliyev regime is now going against its own people, even in the conditions of confidence brought by victory.”

“The states are postponing the suspension of Section 907, which was traditionally done in June. This means that the allocation of military assistance to Azerbaijan is being postponed.”

According to Kirakosyan, there are three reasons for this:

• “The United States does not have much leverage on Azerbaijan, Article 907 is a rare exception,
• after the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Azerbaijan is now much less important to the Pentagon, has much less strategic importance,
• the disappointment of the Americans, which is connected not only with the blockade of the Lachin corridor, but also with the latest round of Washington talks between the foreign ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan.”

At the same time, he does not think that this is important for Azerbaijan.

As for Armenian-American relations, Kirakosyan notes that there have been changes in US policy. In his opinion, the States are trying to strengthen the “strategic importance of a more democratic Armenia.”

He emphasizes that the point is not to help establish democracy in Armenia, but to protect its achievements.

“But it would be a mistake on the part of Armenia to overestimate the importance of the United States. It is the European observers [on the border between Armenia and Azerbaijan], the European presence is probably more effective now.”