PARIS — Against the backdrop of the mass exodus of Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh, the French government is taking a leading role in supporting Armenia and calling to protect its sovereignty, pushing the European Union to adopt similar positions.
France has been an ally of Armenia since its independence in 1991 and recognized the Armenian genocide in 2001. Still, while trying to support Armenia in this conflict, it must also take into account the vast commercial relations between the EU and Azerbaijan, which is one of its gas suppliers, and its already complicated relations with Turkey, an ally of Azerbaijan.
In Spain for the third European Political Community summit taking place on Thursday and Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron, together with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and European Council president Charles Michel, met with Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. The European leaders expressed their support of Armenia’s independence and sovereignty and called to reinforce relations between the European Union and Armenia.
While invited, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev decided not to join.
On Tuesday, French Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne called upon the members of the French National Assembly to set up "a real European plan for supporting Armenia’s independence, sovereignty and democracy."
French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna traveled on the same day to Yerevan, after meeting with her EU counterparts in Kyiv the day before. German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung claimed that German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock didn’t accept Colonna's suggestion to travel together to Yerevan, thus exposing the distance between the two countries over gas-providing Azerbaijan and also on Turkey.
Boosting military cooperation
Addressing the press in Armenia on Tuesday, Colonna said that France "has given its agreement to the conclusion of future contracts, to be forged with Armenia, which will allow the delivery of military equipment to Armenia for its defense."
The French minister refused to offer any details on the potential transfer of military equipment to Armenia. The two countries had discussed military cooperation during the Paris visit of Armenian Deputy Defense Minister Karen Brutyan in June 2022, and then again during the visit of Armenian Defense Minister Suren Papikyan to Paris in September 2022. Still, until Colonna's statement, France had not officially announced the transfer of arms.
In a call to other EU members, Colonna said that the EU "could do more" to assist Armenia. “I asked officially, in writing, the High Representative of the European Union Josep Borrell … to include Armenia in the field of beneficiaries of the European Peace Facility.” The French minister was referring to the EU’s mechanism for financing exterior actions that include defense or military dimensions.
The delivery of military equipment does not only reflect the yearslong alliance between Paris and Yerevan. It also mirrors the importance France places on preserving Armenian democracy, against the backdrop of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Paris believes that forging strong ties with Yerevan would pull it increasingly away from the influence of Moscow.
Bigger wedge with Turkey
The eagerness of Paris to showcase its support of Yerevan could place it in a difficult spot vis-a-vis Ankara, said French researcher Nicolas Monceau of the University of Bordeaux. Still, addressing the latest French declarations, the expert on Turkey-France relations called for prudence. He said that it is too soon to tell what exactly Colonna's statement means and how it will affect France’s relationship with Turkey.
"France has been calling for a long time for solidarity with Armenia and with the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh. With recent developments, Paris needs to show that it is truly engaged, not only in declarations but also with actions. That’s the essence of the approval, announced by Colonna, to deliver military material to Armenia. But a lot will depend on the kind of material that will be transferred and how much of it," Monceau noted.
"In all likelihood, France will provide Armenia strictly with defensive means; Paris can justify that vis-a-vis Ankara. But if offensive weapons are provided, then it’s a whole new ballgame. If we are ever in a situation where French weapons are used by Armenia or by Armenians against Azerbaijan, then the leadership in Turkey will be hard pressed to react," he added.
Monceau acknowledged that bilateral relations between France and Turkey have been tense for several years already, but he does not think that the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh, including the latest statement by Colonna, will mark a tipping point.
"The declarations by Paris and the decision to approve the delivery of military equipment are not targeting Turkey. They constitute a message to Armenia — and to the Armenian people — that France is not abandoning them. It’s also a message to the other EU members and to the countries in the Armenian camp that France is sincere about protecting Armenia. Lastly, it is an internal message of solidarity by the Paris government for the many French nationals of Armenian origin. France is not trying deliberately to provoke Turkey," he said.
Paris and Ankara have been at odds over human rights, the Kurdish issue and a series of regional crises such as the wars in Syria and Libya, and the skirmishes between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus. Still, the two countries have come somewhat closer over the war in Ukraine. After his meeting with President Volodymir Zelenskyy last July, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “without a doubt Ukraine deserves to be in NATO” — a statement much appreciated by Paris.
Monceau stressed that Turkey currently finds itself in an especially difficult economic situation. As such, it must reengage with the West and rehabilitate its ties with the EU.
Erdogan used harsh words last Sunday, at the opening of the parliament session in Ankara, saying he “no longer expects anything from the EU, which has kept us waiting at its door for 40 years." Nevertheless, Monceau noted that Erdogan does not intend to take harsh measures, at least not over France’s solidarity with Armenia.
"There is a long list of disagreements between Paris and Ankara, including on human rights, such as the case of [imprisoned human activist] Osman Kavala. Still, if France does not take the military assistance to Armenia too far, then Turkey will probably be able to contain it," he concluded.
https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/10/armenias-ties-strain-turkey-france-pushes-eu-stand-yerevan