Nagorno-Karabakh: a conflict with global implications

ASIA TIMES
Oct 8 2023

It increasingly seems frozen conflicts will increasingly become hot wars once again

Azerbaijan’s swift military operation has probably concluded the prolonged Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, but brought with it rising concerns of a potential new inter-state conflict involving Armenia, Azerbaijan and possibly Turkey, Iran and Russia. While the regional implications have been made clear, the wider geopolitical implications must not be ignored.

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict has thrust the perennial debate of territorial sovereignty against self-determination into the global spotlight. Nagorno-Karabakh has always been internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan. However, the military means employed to reclaim it starkly contrasts with the diplomatic and multilateral approaches traditionally advocated for resolving territorial disputes.

In particular, the international community’s acquiescence to Azerbaijan’s capture of the territory raises questions about what its attitude is likely to be in situations where the same tensions between territorial integrity and self-determination rise. 

Today, few countries recognize Taiwan as China’s legitimate representative, with most recognizing the People’s Republic of China. Beijing considers Taiwan a renegade province, with President Xi Jinping instructing his armed forces to be ready by 2027 to annex the self-governing island.

The US has maintained strategic ambiguity on whether it would intervene militarily if such an eventuality were to come to pass. President Joe Biden’s statements on the issue, which have seemed to suggest that the US would intervene, have almost always been dialed back by his staffers.