Comprehensive peace talks between the leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan might soon be in the works, according to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This announcement follows a recent military offensive by Azerbaijan in the contested Nagorno-Karabakh region, which led to a significant number of ethnic Armenians residing there fleeing to Armenia. But what happens if these peace talks fail to materialize or to resolve the conflict?

Straight Arrow News contributor Peter Zeihan delves into the potential outcomes of an invasion of “Armenia proper” by Azerbaijan and analyzes the geopolitical factors that will influence the next stage of the conflict.

Excerpted from Peter’s Oct. 26 “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter:

After Azerbaijan’s lightning assault on Nagorno-Karabakh caused ethnic Armenians to flee the region, there’s potential that Azerbaijan will continue to invade Armenia proper.

The motivation for this second phase of the invasion would be to control a land corridor connecting different parts of Azerbaijan. Thanks to Stalin’s chaotic cartography, this region’s power dynamics are just a tad messy. Now mix in some complex geography and bippity-boppity-boo; welcome to the Caucasus.

There is a more significant issue playing out behind the scenes, though. If Azerbaijan is successful in this second invasion, it would place Turkish and Iranian powers within spitting distance of one another. And I can assure you that no one wants to see how that plays out.