The geopolitical landscape of the world is changing quite rapidly. It was the Russia-Ukraine war first, while it is now the Hamas-Israel war. US-China relations are also heating up on the issues of the Indo-Pacific, South China Sea, and Taiwan which may explode at any time. While adequate world attention is drawn to all these issues, a major conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan, affecting 100,000 Armenians, has almost eroded from the memories of all world powers, despite the fact that almost the entire Armenian population was forced to move out of their native place to relocate themselves in Armenia.
The September 23 operations were launched by Azerbaijan to capture this Armenian enclave, which it succeeded in. It succeeded as it had four times the superior forces as compared to Armenia. The relative ‘Nos’ alone don’t matter. The force structure, force organisation, command and control structure, equipment, warfighting doctrine and tactics, and the morale of the forces matter much more. It was probably because of these reasons that Armenia won the first Nagorno-Karabakh war, which concluded in 1994.
It is therefore essential that the Armenian defence forces carry out a re-appraisal of their strengths and weaknesses. This will assist them in identifying the areas that need improvement. It will be a good idea if Armenia takes the assistance of some trusted country to help shape its defence forces, including imparting the training to make it more battle-ready. India could be the obvious choice to establish an ‘Indian Army Training Team (IATT)’ in Armenia, which can be co-located with the Force Headquarters of Armenia. IATT is more suitable due to the following reasons:
- Armenia faces two front threats. From Nakhichevan enclave of Azerbaijan on its West which can be activated by the forces ab-initio placed in the Nakhichevan enclave besides Azerbaijan reinforcing the location through Iran / Turkey. It can also establish a forced corridor through the Southern end of Armenia for a much wanted connectivity. In addition, Armenia’s Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in the East is surrounded by Azerbaijan from almost all the four sides. Armenia needs to be prepared and capable of fighting ‘two front war’. There could be no better country in the world as compared to India which can assist Armenia in its current geo-graphic conflict context as India has fought and won a two front war in 1971 and is handling the similar threat now on two fronts due to collusivity of China and Pakistan.
- India has a large and robust defence force structure. It has also the experience of establishing IATTs in other foreign countries successfully. It is therefore most suited to undertake this task.
- India has been exporting defence equipment to include surveillance equipment to Armenia . In addition, it has also exported the Pinaka rocket weapon system while Armenia has been fighting against its adversary, Azerbaijan. India has done so when Armenia has been at war with Azerbaijan. Armenia is probably the first country in the world to get this support while being at war. It clearly indicates the importance attached to Armenia by India in the latter’s international security calculus.
- Armenia has recently posted a Defence Attaché to its embassy in India who can interact with concerned stakeholders in Government of India at Delhi to work out a suitable structure and its early operationalisation.
Given the importance attached to Armenia and the mutual national interests of both countries converging, India could be willing to respond positively to any such proposal from the Armenian side. The Armenian embassy in India and the Indian embassy in Armenia could play an important role in making this happen. While the exact structure, role, and tasks of IATT will emerge based on mutual consultation between both countries, some ingredients could be as follows:
- The structure should be adequate to provide the comprehensive support as requested by Armenia.
- If Armenia desires, this team can also suggest the force structure and equipment for arming the Armenian Defence Forces. The structures could be aligned to the threat perception Armenia faces so that it can respond to threats comprehensively and decisively.
- Armenia is importing the defence equipment primarily from Russia and erstwhile Soviet nations besides some new entrants. The sources of these imports are drying up due to the Russia-Ukraine war. In such a situation, India has been emerging as one of the main suppliers of defence equipment for the Armenian defence forces besides having the potential to maintain Russian supplied equipment . Indigenisation of defence equipment in India, export orientation and private sector participation is giving India new opportunities to equip the Armenian defence forces.
- IATT can train officers as well as other ranks in all possible domains as desired by Armenia. It will collaborate with training infrastructure and instructors from the Armenian Defence Forces for the optimum results. The syllabi can also be re-structured as per training needs of Armenia.
- Since Armenian defence forces have only two services to include Army and Air force and therefore the composition of IATT must factor the need to train both the Services .It should also train on equipment like drones and other such advancements.
- Though Armenia does not have its Navy being a landlocked country, capacity creation in this field is still essential. IATT can factor this requirement as well.
- Maintenance of the equipment in an operationally acceptable timeframe is also critical for winning the wars / battles. IATT will need to structure itself suitably to impart quality training to this facet as well.
- IATT will need to assist in setting the wargames and field exercises for the Armenian army in a near-conflict simulation environment and will have to assist in objective evaluation.
The role, tasks, and areas to be covered for the training can be discussed by both countries to give it a practical shape. Though reports are emerging towards a peace settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, even then, a strong Armenian defence force is a must in the national interest of Armenia. India can fill this gap in the most effective manner by establishing a training team in Armenia early.
The writer is a retired army veteran. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely that of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.