Who is winning the Nagorno-Karabakh war?
Modern Military | Future Arms & Current News
The onset of the first conflict in Artsakh (also known as Nagorno-Karabakh) occured during the 1990s. As a result, brought the region’s unresolved status into sharp focus. Furthermore, this pivotal issue dominated the peace talks, with various resolutions proposed by the OSCE Minsk Group. Including comprehensive and phased solutions, the Common State, Key West, the Kazan document, and the Lavrov plan. Thus, all aimed at reaching a consensual resolution for Artsakh’s status.
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Army Artsakh
Ultimately, Azerbaijan opted to address this matter through military action. This decision likely took shape in the early 2000s. With Azerbaijan believing that military engagement would yield more favorable outcomes than diplomatic negotiations. The nation strategically awaited a geopolitically opportune moment, which emerged in 2020. Influenced by the global COVID-19 pandemic, in addition, political changes in the United States. And of course evolving perceptions of Armenia-Russia relations post the 2018 Velvet Revolution.
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Logo of the Hamza Division, a Free Syrian Army group in northern Aleppo.
Hamza Division – https://twitter.com/alhamza_brigade
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National Security Service (Armenia)
Government of Armenia – http://www.yerkirmedia.am/wap.php?act=news&lan=hy&id=14820
In response to these developments, the international community’s reaction to Azerbaijan’s forceful eviction of Armenians from Artsakh was limited to standard expressions of concern, pledges of humanitarian aid for Armenian refugees. Additionally, calls came for Azerbaijan to respect the rights of Armenians wishing to return to Artsakh. As recently stated in a joint U.S.-EU declaration.
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Police of the Republic of Armenia
Government of Armenia – http://www.armenianow.com/news/44993/armenia_proshyan_village_mayor_murder_arrest
Some speculate that the disbandment of the Republic of Artsakh and the displacement of its Armenian inhabitants might pave the path to lasting peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. The reasoning is that with the primary obstacle, the status of Artsakh, now removed. There should be no hindrance to peace between the two nations.
The second issue is the proposed “Zangezur corridor,” envisaged to connect Azerbaijan with its exclave Nakhichevan and Turkey through Armenian territory. Though the November 10, 2020, trilateral statement addressed restoring communications, including routes to Nakhichevan, it did not explicitly mention a “corridor.” Nonetheless, Azerbaijan has linked this to the operation of the Berdzor (Lachin) Corridor and insists on special guarantees for the safety of Azerbaijanis traveling through Armenia, without addressing similar concerns for Armenians.
Badge of the Azerbaijani Land Forces
The likelihood of Azerbaijan using military force to enforce these demands remains a subject of speculation. The enclave issue seems the most probable trigger for immediate military action, with Azerbaijan potentially justifying it as liberating its own lands, recognized by Armenia as part of Azerbaijan.
In conclusion, the justifications for military action to establish the “Zangezur corridor” or enforce the “Western Azerbaijan” concept are less clear!