Following the latest escalation on the border with Azerbaijan on February 12-13 that resulted in the deaths of four Armenian soldiers, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has said he believes Baku is laying the groundwork for an invasion.
Referring to Azerbaijan's rejection of Armenia's latest proposals on border delimitation/demarcation, he said: "Our analysis shows that there can only be one reason for this, and the reasons could be their intentions to launch military operations in some areas of the border with the aim of turning it into a large-scale war against the Republic of Armenia."
"This intention can be read in all statements and actions by Baku," he added in his remarks to a cabinet meeting on February 15.
The latest incident saw Azerbaijan claim that its troops had come under fire from an Armenian army position in the southern Syunik region on February 12, resulting in the wounding of one Azerbaijani soldier. Armenia denied the accusation.
The following day Azerbaijan launched what it called a "revenge operation," subjecting the same Armenian post to intensive fire for four hours and killing four soldiers and wounding another.
Azerbaijan's Foreign Ministry was quick to respond to Pashinyan's remark. It reminded Pashinyan of "Armenia's territorial claims on Azerbaijan." This was a reference to Armenia's Constitution, which – through referring to other documents – calls for the unification of the formerly Armenian-populated Nagorno-Karabakh region with Armenia. The process of changing the Armenian constitution has become a heated topic in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan's demand that Armenia change its constitution has complicated the years-long process aimed at achieving a comprehensive peace deal between the archrival neighboring states.
A central issue in those talks is the delimitation and demarcation of the state border, particularly since Azerbaijan's full seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh last September took the fate of that region's Armenian population off the table.
Azerbaijan demands the return of enclaves controlled by Armenia since the First Karabakh War in the early 1990s while Armenia demands the withdrawal of Azerbaijani troops from the Armenian territories it occupied between May 2021 and September 2022. Azerbaijan justifies its troops' presence in the area due to the lack of demarcation and refuses to pull back.
To deescalate the situation, Armenia proposed withdrawing troops from the border areas and establishing a demilitarized zone while the demarcation takes place. The West, including the European Union and the United States, supported Pashinyan's proposal for demilitarizing the borders.
Unarmed EU monitors patrol the Armenian side of the border at Yerevan's invitation. Azerbaijan accuses them of pro-Armenian bias.
In his speech on February 15th, Pashinyan suggested conducting the delimitation process province by province. He also stated that Baku opposed this idea and that Azerbaijan has not changed its policy of military coercion. It's a sharp contrast to two months ago, when the Armenian PM believed that Baku and Yerevan had agreed on the principles of a peace treaty and were close to signing it.
Since then disagreements have continued regarding who should mediate. Armenia tends to prefer Western facilitation while Azerbaijan would rather see Russia and Turkey in that role.
Despite the disagreements, Yerevan and Baku agreed – with no formal external mediation – on a prisoner exchange in January.
Speaking on February 14 while being inaugurated to his fifth term as Azerbaijan's president, Ilham Aliyev said there should be no mediators in the peace talks
"I think that the process of normalisation of Azerbaijan-Armenia relations should be dropped from the international agenda. Because everyone seems to want to deal with this issue. Mind your own business!" Aliyev said.
In the same speech, he doubled down on his demand that Armenia change its constitution:
"Armenia and those supporting it militarily should understand that nothing can stop us. If territorial claims against us are not abandoned, if Armenia does not bring its legislation into order, of course, there will be no peace treaty. This once again suggests that building an army and strengthening military potential is the primary objective."
The border violence and the escalating Azerbaijani rhetoric have exacerbated existing fears in Armenia of an Azerbaijani invasion. Specifically, there is apprehension that Baku will seek to use force to realize its demand for an extraterritorial corridor connecting mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhchivan exclave.
Ani Avetisyan is a journalist based in Armenia
https://eurasianet.org/armenian-pm-says-azerbaijan-gearing-up-for-full-scale-war