Armenia, the world’s oldest Christian nation, is on the precipice of a losing war against neighboring Azerbaijan that threatens to pit Iran against the West.
In the latest bout of tensions between the two hostile neighbors, Azerbaijan killed four Armenian soldiers on Friday. Armenian officials have taken this to be a sign that Azerbaijan is preparing for a large-scale invasion of their lands.
In the following days, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and American Secretary of State Antony Blinken attempted to mediate between the two countries and come to a peaceful resolution. However, all sides doubt that the successive meetings have changed Azerbaijan’s resolve.
The tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan stem from modern and ancient rivalries: The two hate each other passionately on a fundamental level.
The Kingdom of Armenia was the first nation to convert to Christianity, preceding even its historic ally, the Roman Empire. Azerbaijan, on the other hand, was a product of Islamic military expansion northward of Arabic and Near Eastern lands several hundred years later.
The two regions naturally became historic rivals, a feud that was expanded upon by territorial claims over the contentious Nagorno-Karabakh region. Several wars have been fought since the fall of the Soviet Union to determine the fate of this Armenian-populated autonomous region.
Armenia first militarily solidified its claim over Nagorno-Karabakh in 1991 in a bloody victory over Azerbaijan. Its territorial gains were largely thanks to the backing of the newly reformed Russian Federation, compared to the military support for Azerbaijan from Turkey.
Since then, and especially since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow has grown increasingly negligent of Armenian interests and has failed to back it against Azerbaijani aggression. Last September, when Russia suffered a heavy setback at Ukraine’s hands, Azerbaijan took advantage of the moment and attacked several Armenian border points, claiming them and Nagorno-Karabakh for itself.
An attack on Armenia now risks deteriorating the remaining structural integrity of Caucasus and Near Eastern relations. Armenia rests in one of the most uncomfortable political positions on the planet.
Positioned geographically on either side of its borders are Turkey and Azerbaijan. These two share a historical connection as parts of the former Ottoman Empire, religious brotherhood as old Islamic regions, and kinship as ethnic Turkic peoples. Turkey has been key in pressuring landlocked Armenia and isolating it economically from the rest of the developed world.
Armenia has long relied on Russia as a defensive ally. They inherit some of the oldest denominations of the Orthodox Christian faith. They also bond in their abhorrence to Turkey due to its Armenian genocide in the early 20th century and the many Russo-Turkish wars that have taken place over several hundred years.
The West has effectively sided with Azerbaijan due to its holdings in the Caspian Sea, which are rich in natural oil reserves. Europe sees it as a good alternative to Russian oil, which it cut itself off from through sanctions over Ukraine, and several gas companies own major investments in Azerbaijan. Israel trades military equipment to Azerbaijan for its oil as well.
Because these factors, combined with Russia’s negligence, have effectively isolated Armenia, it turns to its only alternative friend: Iran. Tehran is at odds with Azerbaijan due to its large, possibly insurrectionist, Azerbaijani population on their shared northern border. They fear the common threats of European, Israeli, and Azerbaijani hostility that may bring them together.
There is an easy solution to this: The United States can present itself as the alternative. Make clear that friendship with the Christian nation is our goal, and not only can Armenia be saved from imminent destruction and being tied to Iran, but America can gain another geopolitical stronghold against Iran as tensions continue to grow.
If Armenia is further ignored and neglected by the world, it may be the final straw that leads to direct military involvement in Western Asia.
Parker Miller is a 2024 Washington Examiner winter fellow.
https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/beltway-confidential/2864627/armenian-war-escalate-tensions-iran/