Turkish Daily News
Sept 2 2004
Putin, the first Russian president to visit Turkey in decades, hopes
to cap growing economic ties with Turkey by coming to Ankara
Turkey, Russia shift into a new orbit
Putin and Turkish leaders will bypass contentious matters in public
but cannot avoid Chechnya, the PKK and disputes in the Caucasus
behind closed doors
ELIF UNAL ARSLAN
ANKARA – Turkish Daily News
Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Turkish officials hosting the first
Russian president to visit Ankara in decades will endeavor tomorrow
to slough off the disputes of the past and cap growing economic ties
between long-time rivals Russia and Turkey with a political
breakthrough in public.
Putin is scheduled to arrive in the Turkish capital tonight and will
meet with President Ahmet Necdet Sezer tomorrow for top-level talks.
Later in the day, he will get together with Turkish Prime Minister
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and the pair is expected to fly to the Aegean
city of Izmir in the afternoon where the Russian leader, along with
Erdogan, will visit the Izmir International Fair and meet with
Turkish and Russian businessmen before departing from the port of
Izmir in a Russian naval vessel.
When the two presidents pose for the cameras at the Presidential
Palace, they will be inking a declaration for “Friendship and
Multidimensional Partnership” that marks a shift in the two
countries’ ties, which were strained by mutual security concerns and
rivalry over luring the Caucasus and Central Asian republics into
their individual spheres after the collapse of the Soviet Union in
1991.
Turkish officials say an evolution in commercial relations between
Ankara and Moscow is pushing for political progress. “Our economic
relationship has grown, but political dialogue between us has
remained behind this growth. Our trade volume is increasing by 30
percent a year, and in the last 10-15 years it has grown from $150
million per annum to $10 billion. That explains the importance of the
Putin visit,” a Turkish official said.
The declaration that is due to be signed at the Presidential Palace
will highlight diversification in the profit-making areas of mutual
ties, in particular trade and economy and the energy and tourism
fields, another Turkish official said.
In addition to the declaration, the two leaders are expected to seal
five more documents. Among them are two military deals, the first of
which is intended to prevent the occurrence of dangerous incidents
outside of territorial waters, and a second that will protect
intellectual property rights to the exchange of know-how and
equipment in this field.
The rest of the documents to be wrapped up are a cooperative
agreement between Turkey’s BOTAS and Russia’s Gazprom on gas sales,
the distribution and construction of gas storage facilities, a
memorandum of cooperation between the Turkish Foreign Ministry’s
Strategic Research Center (SAM) and the Russian Federation’s
Diplomacy Academy to exchange experts, and finally a trilateral
agreement among Turk Eximbank, Russian Eximbank and GunesEconombank
to provide financial resources for exports primarily to the Central
Asian and Caucasian republics, the Middle East and western Asia.
Affirmations and realities
Turkish officials and Russian diplomats in Ankara both insist that
the previously fierce competition for winning over the Caucasus and
Central Asian republics has now been replaced by partnership savvy. A
Turkish official told the Turkish Daily News that the trilateral
agreement that envisages providing financial resources primarily for
those countries was proof of that perception.
Many agree that the rivalry between Ankara and Moscow in those
republics, some possessing rich oil and natural gas resources, has
lessened to a certain extent, partly because Ankara has been locked
onto its long-running aspiration to join the European Union and
partly due to a change in mutual perceptions on the part of both
countries in regional matters.
The mutual skepticism between the two capitals, however, looks far
from disappearing completly.
Russian Ambassador to Turkey Petr Viladimirovic Stegniy told the TDN
in an exclusive interview that developments in Georgia, Armenia and
Azerbaijan would still be on the negotiating table for Putin and
Turkish leaders. Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul said matters in the
Caucasus would be discused.
Turkey is discomforted by the presence of Russian military bases in
Georgia and Armenia, and Russia views with deep suspicion Turkey’s
cooperation with Georgia and Azerbaijan.
Ahead of Putin’s visit, mass-circulation Turkish daily Hurriyet
reported that the Russian leader would ask Ankara to pursue a
“balanced policy” towards Georgia and not to “spoil” it amid recent
tension between Moscow and Tbilisi over Georgia’s breakaway South
Ossetia province, to which Moscow is allegedly providing backing.
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan visited Georgia
mid-August and urged a peaceful solution to Georgia’s internal
disputes, both in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Georgia plays a crucial
role for both Turkey and Russia since it is part of a U.S.-backed
project, namely Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan, to transport Azeri crude oil to
Western markets through Georgia and Turkey, scheduled to be realized
in 2005.
Ankara had pushed hard for the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main export
pipeline project that would bypass both Russia and Iran, whereas
Moscow had backed the “northern route” to Novorossiysk in an attempt
to control Caspian energy export routes to the West. Now Turkish
officials and Russian diplomats in Ankara say Russia is interested in
taking part in the Bakhu-Tbilisi-Ceyhan project.
On the South Ossetia dispute, the official policies of both Moscow
and Ankara are not too different. Both countries support a peaceful
solution to the South Ossetia conflict within Georgia’s territorial
integrity. An identical picture is valid for Nagorno-Karabakh, which
has caused tension between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Turkey and Russia
once again share a similar official stance, that is, a peaceful
solution to the trouble there within Azerbaijan’s territorial
integrity.
But Ankara and Moscow, in reality, have differing views on the
resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh, with the two siding with opposing
Azerbaijan and Armenia respectively.
When it comes to the mutual accusations of the past of alleged
Russian support for the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), now
known as PKK/Kongra Gel, and alleged Turkish backing for Chechen
separatists, it is easier for Turkish and Russian officials to admit
that “reciprocal mistrust” will not vanish quickly. However, they
say, frequent meetings between security officials and the regular
exchange of information have helped significantly and that headway
has been made to a certain extent to boost confidence.
After a Chechen militant raid on a five-star hotel in Istanbul three
years ago, Turkish authorities began to crack down more harshly on
Chechen sympathizer groups, a departure from Turkey’s treatment of a
group that had seized a ferry in 1996 in the Black Sea port of
Trabzon. The hijackers were later jailed for their act but
mysteriously managed to escape from prison one by one. On the
Russians’ part, Moscow no longer seems to allow outlawed PKK
activities such as a 1996 conference titled “The History of
Kurdistan” organized by PKK-linked groups there.
In a sign of progess, Russian Ambassador Stegniy said Turkish and
Russian officials had been discussing ways to put the PKK on Moscow’s
list of terrorist organizations. He, however, added that it would
require a Russian court decision.
Mutual expectations are running high for the Russian president’s
visit to Ankara. But it is quite clear that even if Putin and Turkish
leaders are able to bypass contentious issues in public, they cannot
not evade them behind closed doors.
Ivanov to hold separate talks
While Putin is attending talks with Turkish leaders, his defense
minister, Sergei Ivanov, will be holding separate negotiations today
with Turkish defense and military officials at the invitation of his
Turkish counterpart, Vecdi Gonul.
Ivanov is expected to seek ways to increase military cooperation with
Turkey that, according to a statement issued by the Russian Defense
Ministry, include the joint licensed manufacture of Russian-Israeli
joint-production Ka-50-2 Erdogan attack helicopters.
The Russian ambassador, however, was not hopeful that the issue would
be a top agenda item for Ivanov’s talks since Turkey had canceled an
earlier tender to purchase attack helicopters that was participated
in by the Russian-Israeli joint venture, and a new tender has yet to
be opened.
Turkish officials say the Russian minister will likely be told that
the Erdogan will be able to join with other attack helicopters once
Turkey opens a fresh tender. Ivanov, along with Foreign Minister
Sergei Lavrov, will accompany Putin in his meetings.
Among the other agenda items of the Russian president’s visit is
crude oil transportation through Turkey’s busy straits. Turkey has
long complained of the passage of too many oil-laden ships through
the narrow straits, saying this constituted an environmental danger
and a threat to the safety of Istanbul, a city of 13 million that
straddles the waterway. Russia has complained about its financial
losses stemming from delays in the passage of oil tankers carrying
its oil.
Turkish officials say Ankara and Moscow are now looking at
alternatives, such as possible pipeline routes, but no final outcome
in this area is expected during Putin’s time in Ankara.
Turkish leaders are also expected to request Putin’s support for
Turkey’s policy on the divided island of Cyprus.
Russia, one of the five permanent members of the U.N. Security
Council, is perceived as one of the major sympathizers of the Greek
Cypriots, who overwhelmingly voted against a U.N. plan in April aimed
at reunification of the island.
The Greek Cypriots are lobbying to block efforts on U.N. and European
Union platforms to end the international isolation of the Turkish
Cypriots as a reward for their support of the U.N. plan.
Turkish officials agree that Russia so far has pursued a pro-Greek
Cypriot policy but say that Moscow has come to balance that position
recently, noting that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov met with
Turkish Cypriot Prime Minister Mehmet Ali Talat on the sidelines of
the latest foreign ministers’ meeting of the Organization of the
Islamic Conference (OIC), which convened in mid-June in Istanbul.