ANTITHESIS OF DESIRES AND CHANCES
Armen Tsatouryan
Hayots Ashkharh, Armenia
Sept 25 2007
Lessons of Arithmetic to Levon Ter-Petrosyan
During a speech made in "Armenia-Marriott" hotel on September 21,
Levon Ter-Petrosyan appeared so absorbed in philosophical judgments
that he could not or did not want to answer the question-puzzle
regarding his nomination for presidency.
Continuing to keep his proponents on the borderline between "yes" and
"no", the ex-President specified only one political task: during the
coming months the political forces have to form a certain alliance
on the political arena, around the goal of his nomination.
And before that, Mr. Ter-Petrsoyan will continue to "study", "weigh"
and "examine" everything in order to be guided by purely political
categories, instead of being infatuated with emotions.
So, reduced continuously to a certain "condition" prior to each
election, the mirror of public opinion reflects the specific
arithmetical results which are recorded after the calculation of the
votes. And our elections, as we know, were held on May 12 i.e. no
more than 4 month ago.
Based on the above-mentioned, let’s try to sketch the framework of the
real chances of those factions which now simply "burn" with the desire
of returning Mr. Ter-Petrosyan to politics. They are: Social-Democratic
Hnchakyan Party, which received no more than 1033 votes (0.07 per cent)
as a result of the May 12 elections, "Impeachment" bloc, with its 17808
votes (12.8 per cent), Armenian People’s Party with its 23629 votes
(1.7 per cent) "Republic" party with its 22,609 votes (1.62 per cent),
And finally, the Armenian pan-National Movement which appeared wise
enough not to participate in the May 12 voting, as it was well-aware
of its rating that fluctuated within the limits of 1 per cent.
Therefore, in case the real chances of the factions that desire to
support Mr. Ter-Petrosyan are brought to a maximum, their "sum effect"
will make up 70 thousand votes. The following question comes up: by
relying on such pigmies, what "change of moods" will Mr. Ter-Petrosyan
anticipate on the political arena during the presidential elections
which will undoubtedly reflect the pretensions of the pro-Government
parties that received around 1 million votes on May 12?
This is the reason that by livening up the political pigmies and
attempting to unite them around himself, the ex-President, continues
to pretend at first sight that he is hesitating between "yes" and
"no". Perhaps, others will also "hesitate" all of a sudden and turn
to his side. But who will they be, when it is known for sure that no
aliens will land on the political arena during the coming months?
It is difficult for Mr. Ter-Petrosyan expect anything even from
"Rule of Law" and "Heritage", parties that recorded modest results
on May 12. The former will definitely stand for election with
a candidate of its own; as to "Heritage", the major part of its
nationalistically-disposed electorate cannot in any way turn to
Mr. Petrosyan’s side.
Thus, making philosophical judgments on the "change of moods" but
undoubtedly considering arithmetics a precise science, L. Ter-Petrosyan
has actually become faced with the totally unsolvable antithesis of
desires and chances.
We don’t think it is so difficult to understand which path the fist
President of Armenia will choose in the near future, because there
is one thing we know for sure: it is only the pragmatic calculation
deriving from his personal interests that remains a priority task
for a politician like Levon Ter-Petrosyan.