ARABS GAIN FROM US-TURKEY CRISIS
by Scott Sullivan
The Conservative Voice, NC
37.html
Oct 15 2007
By assaulting Turkey, President Bush and the US Congress have sharply
increased Arab leverage over US policy in Iraq and opened the way to
large scale Arab participation in resolution of the Iraq crisis.
The US Congress has assaulted Turkey by advancing the Armenia
Genocide resolution, which now awaits final approval by the House of
Representatives, possibly as early as this week, according to House
Speaker Nancy Pelosi.
President Bush has assaulted Turkey by siding with the PKK in its
dispute with Turkey. Bush has refused to order US forces in Iraq to
deter PKK cross border raids into Turkey. Bush has even insisted that
the Turkish government negotiate PKK issues directly with Kurdish
President Massoud Barzani, who Turkey considers to be pro-PKK.
Turkey has threatened to retaliate against the US by withdrawing
Turkish logistical support for US forces in Iraq. Turkey provides
substantial logistics support to US operations in both Iraq and
Afghanistan. Turkish public opinion against the US for its pro-PKK
stance will almost certainly compel Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan
to constrict the US logistics supply corridor.
The loss of Turkish logistical support would strike hard at US
operations from two directions. First, the progress of Operation Surge
could be halted just as it is beginning to have an impact beyond the
Sunnis in Anbar province. Such a setback would compel President Bush
and Congress to reconsider the option of an early withdrawal of US
forces from Iraq.
Second, the option of withdrawing US forces from Iraq could become far
more hazardous, given the loss of the existing option of withdrawing
through the Kurdish areas in northern Iraq to Turkey.
As a result of losing Turkish support for US logistics, the must choose
between two competing alternatives for a new logistics corridor —
Iran or the Arab states. In short, either Iran or the Arab states would
step forward to support US forces in Iraq. Whoever steps forward would
gain considerable leverage over future US policy in Iraq.Iran would
gain leverage by offering the Persian Gulf access as a substitute
for Turkish access to Iraq.
Iran could offer access via the Iraqi port of Basra, which Iran could
easily bring under its control.Iran would then be in position to
reinforce its existing position as the US’s primary partner in Iran,
and to move ahead with its plan to partition Iraq with the Kurds.
Under this scenario, Iran would take Basra and all of southern Iraq,
and the Kurds would take Kirkuk and northern Iraq. Under such a
scenario it is possible to imagine joint US-Iranian Revolutionary
Guards (IRGC) patrols in Basra.
Meanwhile, the Arabs would gain leverage by offering Jordan and
Kuwait as substitutes for Turkish logistical support. However, the
Arabs would insist upon no partition of Iraq between Iran and the
Kurds. The Arabs are terrified by the emergence of Iranian-Kurdish
collaboration in dividing Iraq, backstopped by the US. For the first
time since the US occupation of Iraq, Arab influence would displace
Iranian influence in Iraq.
In short, as a result of the US-Turkish logistics crisis, the US must
choose between reinforcing its existing partnership with Iran and the
Kurds in Iraq, a partnership that leads directly to Iraq’s partition.
Alternatively, in a second option, the US would build a new
relationship with the Arab states in Iraq, one directed at opposing
Iraq’s partition.
Turkish PM Erdogan clearly hopes the US will choose the Arab option,
at which point Turkey could re-enter the US logistical supply
operation. Prime Minister Erdogan and the Aabs would then displace
Iran as the US partner in Iraq. Iran, in turn, will be isolated.
Excellent!