WAR, PEACE, POLITICS AND TURKEY’S CHOICE
Wall Street Journal
Oct 17 2007
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The Turkish government today is on the verge of getting parliamentary
approval for military strikes at Turkish Kurdish rebels in Iraq —
a scenario feared by war critics since the 2003 U.S.-led invasion
and one reverberating around the region and back to Washington.
Parliamentary debate in Ankara — somewhat of a formality considering
the popular support for retaliation among most Turks — is set to
start at 8 a.m. ET.
Turkish leaders have said an incursion wouldn’t immediately follow
legislative consent, and diplomacy aimed at averting an actual
offensive was in play on several fronts. A military operation into the
Kurdish region of northern Iraq could play havoc with Iraq’s already
messy politics and stir trouble in what has been the most peaceful
part of the country. "An invasion would raise a host of messy issues
for Baghdad as it struggles to exert control amid bloody, sectarian
conflict," The Wall Street Journal notes, especially since Iraqi Kurd
security forces are "overwhelmed from guarding the border with the rest
of Iraq to prevent infiltration by Sunni Arab extremists." Moreover,
the landlocked region relies on Turkey for many of its imports and
will need Turkish pipelines to ship out its oil, the Journal adds.
Turkey’s NATO-qualified military is probably strongest in the region —
with the exception, perhaps, of U.S. forces there. And in the past,
Ankara has used threats of military action to make Syria curb Kurdish
activity on its side of the border. Iraqi leaders may be hoping
the current bellicosity is just a threat, for now, and Iraqi Vice
President Tariq al-Hashimi yesterday traveled to Turkey to seek the
chance to stop rebels from the PKK — the Kurdistan Workers Party —
"who cross the border before Turkey takes any step," he said. And after
meeting Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Mr. Hashimi added:
"I got what I wanted from our talks. There is a new atmosphere to
stop the current crisis."
The spike in Turkish-Iraqi tension — which helped push oil prices
to a new record yesterday, as the Journal reports — comes when the
region is already the subject of several different geopolitical power
plays. Yesterday in Tehran, for example, Russian President Putin helped
forge an alliance of Caspian Sea nations who oppose the prospect of
any Western military action against Iran, even as he pledged to help
complete an internationally controversial Iranian nuclear plant,
as the Times of London reports. Iran, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and
Turkmenistan, along with Russia, agreed to keep other countries from
using their territories for military strikes against another of the
group, with Mr. Putin asserting "It is important …
that we not only not use any kind of force but also do not even think
about the possibility of using force." But officials in Ankara probably
had their eyes more on Washington than Tehran.
Street demonstration in Turkey suggest opposition to a U.S. genocide
label on the mass killings of ethnic Armenians nearly a century ago
is at least as heartfelt there as support for retaliation against
the PKK. And American leverage over longtime ally Turkey has been
weakened by congressional consideration of the House resolution
that would declare the Armenians’ deaths genocide. Recognition of
the resolution’s cost back in Turkey is apparently responsible for a
sudden waning of support in the House, and a dozen House members from
both parties shifted against the measure over 24 hours, the New York
Times reports. "Some made clear that they were heeding warnings from
the White House, which has called the measure dangerously provocative,
and from the Turkish government, which has said House passage would
prompt Turkey to reconsider its ties to the United States, including
logistical support for the Iraq war," the Times said. Others said that
"while they deplored the mass killings of Armenians by the Ottoman
Empire, the modern-day consequences in the Middle East could not
be overlooked."
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