IF TURKEY INVADES
Author: Lee Hudson Teslik
Council on Foreign Relations, NY
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Oct 22 2007
Turkey removed a major legislative hurdle blocking an invasion into
northern Iraq with an October 18 parliamentary vote authorizing raids
(Turkish Daily News). Turkey’s Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
cautioned that the vote would not necessarily translate to an invasion,
but analysts did not seem too reassured, particularly after an ambush
(BBC) of Turkish troops by Kurdish separatists incited crisis talks
in Ankara on October 21. While U.S. and Iraqi officials alike warn
Turkey not to invade, CFR’s Steven A. Cook says in a podcast that
a controversial vote by a U.S. congressional panel, deeming the
slaughter of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in World War I a "genocide,"
may have given Turkey the political catalyst needed to launch an
invasion. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice responded to the
ambush by asking Erdogan to hold off for a few days before launching
any ground attacks, and the New York Times reports Turkish officials
agreed to the request. But the pause did not quell the drumbeat of
"what ifs," and analysts focused their attentions on what the fallout
might be if Turkey follows through with cross-border raids.
Most experts say the after-effects of an invasion would depend largely
on the scale of the attack and how it is carried out. Iraq’s Foreign
Minister Hoshyar Zebari has indicated he prefers limited air attacks
(Gulf Daily News) on Kurdish targets to full-on land raids.
Iraqi and U.S. leaders say a Turkish ground attack would work to
destabilize Iraq’s north, currently one of the less volatile regions
in the country. In a recent interview with CFR.org, the Kurdish head
of foreign affairs in Iraq expresses hope the issue can be solved
politically. The tension is particularly awkward (FT) for the United
States, which finds itself stuck between a political ally in Turkey
and a tactical ally in Iraq’s Kurds. Given the fragility of the current
situation, Iraq’s foreign minister said in a recent statement that the
effects of an invasion could ripple (VOA) well beyond northern Iraq,
destabilizing the entire region.
Should this happen, one major casualty might be Iraq’s nascent
government, which already struggles to keep order in a country
fraught with ethnic tension. As a new Backgrounder explains, some
U.S. officials are calling for schemes to manage Iraq’s regions
separately-though these plans meet a contentious response from
many Iraqi leaders. CFR President Emeritus Leslie H. Gelb says in
an interview that a federalized Iraqi government remains the best
way to "maintain harmony" among Iraq’s sects. Kurds in recent years
have been able to mediate between Iraq’s Sunni and Shiite factions,
and analysts worry that if they become embroiled in violence, their
ability to do this will be compromised.
It remains to be seen whether Turkey will actually invade Iraq,
or if authorizing raids simply represents a bargaining chip. Turkey
has again called on the U.S. to seize Kurdish separatist fighters,
and U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said the U.S. needs to do
more on this front. Either way, intense diplomacy has broken out in
an effort to stave off bloodshed. On October 19, Kurdish Iraqis held
protests (NYT) in an effort to coax Turkey not to attack. Meanwhile,
the Economist argues the best hope for preventing a crisis may lie
not in getting Turkey to sympathize with Iraqis or Americans, but in
getting Ankara to better understand its own interests. "With luck,"
the article says, Turkey "will recognize that a full-blown invasion
of northern Iraq would damage its interests and further inflame
Kurdish separatists."