OPINION: WILL TURKEY RETALIATE?
By Chicago Tribune (MCT)
Chicago Tribune, IL
Oct 25 2007
As if the United States government didn’t have enough troubles to deal
with in the Middle East, another one is looming along the northern
border of Iraq. Kurdish rebels who operate from Iraq have been at war
with the government of Turkey, and over the weekend they carried out
an ambush that left a dozen Turkish soldiers dead and others missing.
The attack came just days after Turkey’s parliament passed a measure
authorizing cross-border military action against the insurgent force,
known as the PKK ( Kurdistan Workers’ Party), which Turkey and the
U.S. regard as a terrorist organization. A Turkish invasion of Iraqi
Kurdistan now looks like a possibility.
That would be calamitous for just about everyone. It would further
destabilize the Iraqi government and underscore its weakness. It
would force the U.S. to choose between Turkey, an important ally in
the region, and Iraq’s Kurds, who predominate in the most stable part
of the country. It could unleash a larger regional conflict involving
neighbors such as Iran and Syria.
It could also be a disaster for Turkey. Besides the serious danger of
being mired in a bloody guerrilla war on foreign soil, an invasion
would almost certainly spark nationalist sentiment among its Kurds,
which Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has done much to defuse. A
full-scale assault would also damage Turkey’s reputation in Europe
at a time when it is seeking membership in the European Union.
The Turks don’t need to be told any of this. The parliament’s vote was
clearly meant to induce Washington and Baghdad to act so Ankara won’t
have to. But no government can passively accept terrorist attacks from
a neighboring country. Unless someone else tries to curb the rebels,
Erdogan may be forced to do something.
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The Bush administration has launched what the State Department calls a
"full court press" to dissuade the Turks from invading. While calling
on them to exercise restraint, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also
emphatically stressed to the Iraqi government "the importance of Iraq
working actively with the Turkish government to counter what is a real
threat to Turkish citizens," according to spokesman Sean McCormack.
Unfortunately, now is not the best time to expect a sympathetic ear
in Ankara. The recent House committee to declare the killings of
Armenians by Turks during and after World War I "genocide" has fueled
antagonism in a public already angry about the Iraq war. But the Bush
administration should get some credit from Erdogan for opposing the
House resolution, which now looks unlikely to pass.
The administration will have to do far more than that though, if it
hopes to pacify the Turks. Specifically, it will have to bring heavy
pressure on both the Baghdad government and Iraqi Kurdish leaders to
make visible efforts to rein in the PKK.
As they should know, that is not just in the interest of the U.S.
Failing to act would only reduce the chances for a stable, peaceful
Iraq — something they need more than anyone else.
From: Baghdasarian