USA might lose Caspian oil if Russia gains supremacy in region – Azeri
analyst
Yeni Musavat, Baku
20 Sep 04
An Azerbaijani political expert has said that Russia’s mediation in
the Karabakh talks is fraught with danger. In an interview with Yeni
Musavat newspaper, Vafa Quluzada said that the Russian settlement
option envisaged sending Russian troops to Nagornyy Karabakh since
Moscow aimed to boost its political and military presence in the
region. If Russia succeeds in dominating the region, the USA might
lose Caspian oil, Quluzada said. The following is an excerpt from the
report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni Musavat on 20 September headlined
“The USA might lose Caspian oil and the Caucasus” and subheaded “If
the Kremlin’s mediation proves successful, Washington will have to
withdraw from the region”; subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The latest CIS summit in Astana was different from the previous ones
for some parameters. First, it is noteworthy that Russia has never
shown its claims to the former Soviet Union [FSU] so obviously
before. [Russian] President Vladimir Putin is evidently displeased
with Russia’s position and influence on the abovementioned
geopolitical region. Therefore, an initiative to set up the Security
Council of the CIS, which was advanced at the summit, stems from this
concern.
Russia’s mediation in Karabakh talks promises Azerbaijan no good
Another direction which the Kremlin wants to follow in the FSU is to
take advantage of ethnic and territorial conflicts in the area
regarded as “near abroad” and strengthen its military and political
presence there. It seems to us that Moscow has started to take actual
steps towards this. The Astana discussions on Nagornyy Karabakh and
Putin’s active participation in them, and the circulated fresh news
about a new solution model that envisages bringing Russian
peacekeepers to the region promise Azerbaijan no good. Simply because
practice shows that the real welfare and territorial integrity of the
Azerbaijani people is linked not to Russia but to its integration into
the West.
>From this viewpoint, the former state adviser, Vafa Quluzada, sees as
very dangerous the Astana discussions and the Russian solution model.
The political analyst said that Russia mainly demanded that its troops
be sent to Azerbaijan and recalled that this was the main precondition
that the Kremlin set on 12 May 1994 during the signing of the
cease-fire agreement.
[Passage omitted: similar ideas]
Astana talks very dangerous
“I do not know the Azerbaijani leader’s attitude to the Astana meetings.
But those talks are in principle very important and dangerous,”
Quluzada said.
It is clear that the “Russian option” stipulates serious compromises
to Armenia. One of them is a referendum in Nagornyy Karabakh. In this
regard, the former state adviser said: “This will be even more terrible.
God forbid, if this happens, Armenians [in Karabakh] will immediately
say that Azerbaijan recognizes their independence since it allowed
them to hold a referendum. Actually, Armenians have occupied our house
and have been sitting there for many years. They just need an official
confirmation of this. They will reach this through a referendum.
Moreover, if we allow this to happen, then representatives from the
OSCE, the UN and the European Union will come to the region and the
illegal government will gain a completely legal status. This means
giving away Nagornyy Karabakh.”
[Passage omitted: Russia might take resolute steps]
Vafa Quluzada recalled another interesting detail about the subject.
“After my resignation, [the late Azerbaijani President] Heydar Aliyev
and I were still in contact at his request. We would meet from time to
time and he would ask for my advice. Meeting me after the Key West
talks, he said that according to the agreement, no peacekeepers would
be sent to the occupied lands after they were vacated. [Armenian
President Robert] Kocharyan also agreed with this. It meant that there
would be no possibility of troops clashing. It appears that the
Key-West option was better than the Astana option.”
The fact that the issue has reached this point naturally has its own
reasons. One of them is Russia’s intention to strengthen its
political and military presence in the region. Moscow has started to
intensively draw up new plans and tactics in this sphere. As has
already been mentioned, the plan to take advantage of ethnic and
territorial conflicts in the CIS occupies a special place among them.
USA might lose Caspian oil
Quluzada, who shared our opinions, thinks that the USA might lose
Caspian oil and the Baku-Ceyhan pipeline if the Kremlin’s activity
bears fruit.
“Because the situation in Iraq is indefinite. If Russia wins in
Azerbaijan, the USA will have to give up Caspian oil and the
Baku-Ceyhan pipeline might be exploded. The USA will, in general, have
to give up the region if the Kremlin gets mediation in its hands.”
Apparently, the fact that Moscow has intensified its efforts in the
negotiations and its wish to take the initiative promise Azerbaijan,
other regional states and democratic processes no good. Therefore, the
West, as well as the USA, which have great geopolitical interests in
the region, should seriously review the case. Or it might be late.