THE PREFERENCES ARE BEING CLARIFIED
Aravot, Armenia
Dec 12 2007
Aram Abrahamyan The preferences are being clarified
Believe or not in the results of opinion polls? The answer to this
question within political frameworks is definite: if these results
satisfy a specific political force, then they are precise and
objective, if results of a poll do not suit a political party, then
they are false and "fabricated" by opponents. Or citizens are afraid
and do not express their opinions during polls. Let’s consider the
last argument, which is presented, naturally, by the opposition. Of
course, it is impossible to fully exclude its being, true taking
into consideration, that our current authorities, to put it mildly,
are extremely far from being democratic and broad-minded. But if
the conduct of opinion polls is senseless, if citizens are afraid to
express their opinions, so holding an election is senseless to the
same extent, as the same people would be led by the same fears.
In particular the doubts concerning opinion polls being anonymous
come into effect in regard to an election being secret and anonymous.
Making a reservation for partial distortion of opinion results by
fear, one should also accept that this pattern in general reflects
the moods of the voters.
The ARP group, which cooperates with the Aravot daily, conducted
another telephone opinion poll on 28 November – 1 December among
663 residents of Yerevan. Before measuring the ratings of political
figures, the sociologists asked what solution can the Karabakh issue
have? The most frequent answer – Karabakh will be recognized as an
independent state – 34.1 per cent, will never be solved- 18.6 per cent,
Karabakh will unite to Armenia – 17.8 per cent, some territories of
Karabakh will be passed to Azerbaijan – 13.9 per cent.
There are also extreme pessimists (2.1 per cent), who believe that
Karabakh will be completely yielded to Azerbaijan.
The respondents believe that out of our [political] figures, this issue
can be solved by [Armenian Prime Minister] Serzh Sargsyan – 7.5 per
cent, [the leader of the National Democratic Union], Vazgen Manukyan –
4.5 per cent, former Armenian President Levon Ter-Petrosyan – 3.5 per
cent, no-one at the current moment – 31.5 per cent, foreign forces –
3.3 per cent, and undetermined- 45.9 per cent.
The preferences of Yerevan’s residents have become more precise. If the
election was held "on next Sunday" (2 December), 19.2 per cent (+1.9
per cent compared to the opinion poll in October) would vote for the
current Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan, 9.2 per cent (+2.1 per cent)
– for the former President Levon Ter-Petrosyan . Then comes Vazgen
Manukyan 4.4 per cent (+2.9), [the leader of the Orinats Yerkir party
(the Law-Governed Country party)] Artur Baghdasaryan – 2.1 per cent
(+0.5 per cent), [presidential hopeful of the Armenian Revolutionary
Federation – Dashnaktsutyun] Vahan Hovhannisyan – 2 per cent (+1.2 per
cent), [the leader of the National Unity Party] Artashes Geghamyan –
1.4 per cent (+ 0.5 per cent), 31.5 per cent of the respondents were
still undecided and 18.7 per cent said they are "against all".
Incidentally, if I was the opposition I would not emphasize the
issue of fear so much. According to a clear psychological mechanism,
as much I speak of a fear, so much people fear. They think- so there
is something to fear of.