PanARMENIAN.Net
Independence is not granted; it is either proclaimed or won
Granted independence is not stable: the guarantor
countries in case of any change in the world politics
or in the given region may simply occupy the given
region and the entire `independence’ will be put an
end to right away.
25.12.2007 GMT+04:00
In the process of conflict resolution there is a
formula, which always works out. If the regulation of
the conflict is not handy for someone, or if its
resolution is based on unacceptable bases for either
of the parties, the topic is simply being `distorted’.
Most probably, regardless the `decisiveness’ of the
OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs, the OSCE and EU itself,
the process of the resolution of Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict hasn’t improved over the last 10 years.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The upcoming visit of the OSCE Minsk
Group in 2008 to the region will hardly bring to any
results. According to some information the major point
in the achievement of the process is the status of
Nagorno-Karabakh, i.e. its independence; the very
independence which they want for Kosovo, but refuse to
grant to the CIS countries, using the term `frozen
conflicts’.
The truth is that in this case there is one important
thing to be mentioned: independence is not granted, it
is proclaimed (like in the case of Kosovo), or it is
won, like the case was with Karabakh. Granted
independence is not stable: the guarantor countries in
case of any change in the world politics or in the
given region may simply occupy the given region and
the entire `independence’ will be put an end to right
away. Metropolitans willingly or unwillingly follow
the example of Israel, which refuses the Arabs in
establishing the own state of Palestine. `Hopes George
Bush has for the Peace Conference under the
chairmanship of Tony Blair, who has lately been
appointed the Middle East Quartet’s Special Envoy, are
mere illusions. From point of view of the American
President, all the previous peaceful initiatives have
failed in many ways, if not only because the
Palestinians were not ready to establish their state.
This is why the main point on the agenda is the
formation of the governmental institutes and reforms
in the Palestinian State system. Peaceful process is
at a deadlock for another reason, but neither Bush nor
the EU has political will to speak about it openly.
The thing is that the Israeli political elites have
already reached a consensus regarding the
inadmissibility of having Palestine State, since this
would deprive Israel of the possibility to exercise
political and economic control over the Western bank
of the River Jordan,’ writes the director of the
USA/Middle East Project Henry Siegman in London Review
of Books. According to the Chief of General Staff of
the Israel Defense Forces Moshe Ya’alon, the main goal
of Israel is to make is `to make it quite clear for
the Palestinian people that they are defeated nation.’
But the best depiction of the situation was given by
the former Minister of Defense of Israel Moshe Dayan
in 1977 in a conference held in Tel-Aviv: `The
question is not about what the decision must be like,
but how we shall live without any decision.’
Such a formation of the question presupposes the most
different variants of the resolution of the conflict,
certainly committed to failure. All the basic
proposals made by the OSCE Minsk Group brought to the
following: `package option’, which presupposes
withdrawal of the Armenian troops from the safe haven
in the vicinity of Nagorno-Karabakh and the
determination of the status, which was rejected by
Azerbaijan; `step-by-step option’, which presupposes
firstly providing the withdrawal of the troops and
then only the issue of determination of the status,
and the third; the principle of `common nation’-
within Azerbaijan with great autonomy, which was
rejected by Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. So it all
goes according to Dayan; living with the flow, raising
the same old propositions from time to time only with
some slight changes and waiting for the resolution of
the Kosovo problem, which will any way have its effect
on the decisions of all the conflicts in CIS area,
including that of Nagorno-Karabakh.
«PanARMENIAN.Net» analytical department