DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
January 25, 2008 Friday
NATIONAL DEFENSE TAKING PRECEDENT OVER PENSIONS
by Vladimir Mukhin
CIS COUNTRIES BOOST ARMS SPENDINGS; Arms spendings in CIS countries
exceed the GDP growth.
What information on CIS countries’ military budgets is available
indicate a steady growth of arms spendings throughout the
Commonwealth.
At first sight, the relative parameters remain unchanged in most CIS
countries. As a matter of fact, however, in 2006-2008 they grew by at
least one third every year, leaving the GDP growth in this countries
far behind. Aggregate arms spendings of CIS countries this year will
exceed the 2006 by 65%. Aggregate GDP growth in the meantime is only
expected to top that of 2008 by only 15%.
Georgia has been an absolute record-holder with regard to arms
spending. It spent $77 million on national defense in 2006 and plans
to spend $600 million this year.
Georgia’s neighbors in the Caucasus are doing what they can to keep
up with it. Azerbaijan has almost doubled its military budget since
2006. It will amount to $1.3 billion this year. The military budget
of Armenia increases at a similar rate. Yerevan has set aside almost
$0.4 billion for national defense this year – discounting the
military budget of the government of Nagorno-Karabakh. Their
confrontation with Azerbaijan taken into account, Armenia and
Nagorno-Karabakh spend at least 5% of their GDP on arms spendings
(with Russian military aid taken into account). The military budgets
of Azerbaijan, Armenia, and Georgia leave the impression that
countries of the southern part of the Caucasus make preparations for
the hostilities.
The situation in Central Asia is somewhat different. Kyrgyz arms
spending amounts to only 1.3% of the GDP. In fact, Kyrgyzstan is one
of the least militarized countries in the Commonwealth. Its GDP this
year is expected to reach $3.4 billion, and foreign debts nearly
equal the GDP.
The military budget of Uzbekistan in the meantime is certainly a
burden for the national economy. Tashkent intends to spend 4% of the
GDP on national defense this year. The figure is nearly 1% down from
the 2006 parameters, but some experts attribute it to the restored
membership in the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization.
Weapons and military hardware within the Organization are available
to its members at the makers’ domestic prices. Needless to say, other
members of the Organization owe this good luck mostly to Russia. The
relatively large arms spending of Uzbekistan in the meantime is
ascribed to determination to deal with domestic threats rather than
external ones. The regular army is the regime’s principal prop in
Uzbekistan and has been ever since the armed rebellion in Andijan
(Ferghana Valley) was crushed in May of 2005.
It maybe added here that Russia offers military aide to practically
all Central Asian countries (Turkmenistan is the only exception).
Turkmenistan will be the principal recipient this year. Military
hardware of the 201st Russian Military Base is being turned over to
the national army there these days. Its cost is estimated at nearly
$1 billion or almost one third of the Tajik GDP expected to amount to
$3.5 billion this year. The 2008 Tajik military budget in the
meantime is planned at the level of $63 million or just over 5% of
the worth of Russian military aid.
Military aid to Belarus will continue this year because both
countries are still building the common defense zone. Thirteen
percent or $163 million of the Russian-Belarussian Union budget
financed by Moscow by two thirds are to be set aside for
military-technical cooperation, law enforcement, and security. The
Belarussian military budget this year will amount to $680 million.
A few words on Kazakh and Ukrainian arms spending now. Astana has
doubled arms spending since 2006. In relative figures, that amounts
to just over 1% of the GDP. The rapidly developing economy in
Kazakhstan in the meantime permitted Astana to launch a major
rearmament program.
Ukrainian entertains similar plans with regard to military
development. President Victor Yuschenko instructed the government and
the Rada to double arms spendings currently amounting to about $2
billion. Yuschenko wants more than $4 billion or over 2% of the GDP
spent on national defense. If the order is carried out, conscription
in the Ukraine will be abolished in 2010 and the Armed Forces will
become professional.
Turkmenistan and Moldova spend little on national defense –
Turkmenistan because it has no external or internal enemies, Moldova
because it is so poor. Kishinev counts on the EU and NATO aid that
may equal Moldova’s own military budget this year.
As for Ashkhabad, it is the domestic repressive machinery that it
believes and invests in. Reports from the Turkmen regular army in the
meantime indicate that it is on the verge of collapse due to the
absence of qualified personnel.
Analysis of information in open sources therefore shows that arms
spendings throughout the Commonwealth grow at a faster rate that the
national GDPs. Republics facing grave problems (territorial, social,
whatever) become militarized to a larger extent than other countries.
Russia continues to send military aide to some members of the CIS
Collective Security Treaty Organization. The Russian military budget
in 2008 in the meantime is double the 2006 one.
Source: Nezavisimaya Gazeta, January 23, 2008, p. 9
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress
