East-West divide over Kosovo move
By Paul Reynolds
World affairs correspondent, BBC News website
Story from BBC NEWS:
europe/7249317.stm
Published: 2008/02/17 15:34:15 GMT
The diplomatic gulf between Russia and many Western governments is
widening with the declaration of independence by Kosovo.
What the United States and many EU countries see as the inevitable
result of war and history is regarded as "immoral and illegal" in the
words of Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Most EU governments, certainly the British, see the move as a one-off,
the final piece of the shattered jigsaw that was Yugoslavia being put
into its new place.
Russia will try to block the move in the Security Council. This will
fail because of the support for Kosovo from three permanent members
with a veto on Security Council decisions – the US, France and Britain.
Russia itself last summer blocked a Security Council decision to
approve Kosovo’s limited independence.
The mandate
At issue is the separation of the province from Serbia without a clear
mandate from the Security Council.
Russia supports the view of Serbia that a province cannot break away
like this. Serbia has offered autonomy not independence.
Russia says the principles of international law and custom, especially
those governing diplomacy in Europe, demand that agreement is made
first.
The US and countries supporting Kosovo say that the existing UN
Security Council resolution 1244 authorised an "international presence"
in Kosovo after the war waged by Nato in 1999 and does not prevent the
move to independence.
In the final analysis, though, the Western argument is about politics
not law.
The alienation of Kosovo from Serbia, it is felt, has gone too far and
the status quo is no longer sustainable or acceptable.
The result is another issue that is added to the growing list of
differences between the West and Russia.
The re-emergence of the word West, with its Cold War implications of an
almost permanent division with Russia, is a sign of how badly relations
have deteriorated over the past few years.
EU recognition
Many EU governments, including the UK, France and Germany, are expected
to recognise the limited and supervised form of independence
recommended for Kosovo by the UN.
They will do so after a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels on
Monday.
The EU is leaving actual recognition to individual governments.
Diplomatic sources say that three member states – Cyprus, Romania and
Slovakia – have told EU partners that they will not recognise the
breakaway province.
Others might be slow to do so. But there will be substantial support
for Kosovo.
Recognition by the United States is not in doubt and is also expected
on Monday. The moves have all been coordinated with the Kosovan
leadership. The idea is to minimise the expected diplomatic discord.
‘Pandora’s box’
That there will be discord is certain.
Serbia is not expected to launch an military moves but will certainly
do its best to boycott Kosovo while trying to support the Serb minority
there. Russia will ensure that Kosovo cannot join the UN.
The stand-off has serious implications for Serbia’s future membership
of the EU. This could well be delayed and, if relations get much worse,
could be put on hold for some years at least.
There is also the possibility that the Serb population in
Bosnia-Herzegovina might call for a referendum on their secession.
Whether Russia will use the Kosovo precedent as an argument that
Abkhazia and South Ossetia deserve independence or secession from
Georgia remains to be seen.
At a recent security conference in Munich, the former Russian defence
minister, Sergei Ivanov, spoke of Kosovo "opening a Pandora’s box".
At the moment, there is such a gap between the West and Russia that it
cannot be bridged. Russia regards itself as under threat (not just from
the US anti-missile system, but from a deep hostility) and has taken
what it feels are defensive measures.
But those measures (including the threat to target countries helping
the US missile shield) are seen in the West as aggressive.
East and West are still divided.