Global Insight
February 18, 2008
Election 2008: Former and Current Leaders Collide in Battle of Wills
in Armenian Presidential Poll
by Natalia Leshchenko
While election results in many post-Soviet states are clear before
the actual voting, Armenia’s presidential poll does leave some room
for uncertainty.
Armenian voters are literally making a choice between the past and
the present as they deliberate between two principal candidates at
tomorrow’s presidential election.
Global Insight Perspective
Significance
Armenians go to a fifth presidential election in their post-Soviet
history tomorrow.
Implications
The election is essentially an attempt by the ruling elite circle to
pass power from the outgoing president Robert Kocharian to his close
ally and prime minister Serzh Sargsyan. The former president Lev
Ter-Petrossian, coming back from political oblivion to challenge
Sargsyan, may at least drag the election process into a second round.
Outlook
The authorities are trying to tread a narrow line by ensuring
international recognition of the vote and securing state authority in
their own hands. This creates a democratic opening in the electoral
process.
The present is embodied by the Prime Minister Serzh Sargsyan, a
life-long ally of President Robert Kocharian who departs having
served two presidential terms. The change of figures from Kocharian
to Sargsyan is inconsequential as the two are known to have been
effectively ruling in tandem for years. Sargsyan runs on the
improving economy, with 11.3% GDP growth in 2007, stability and
strong economic and political orientation on Russia, combined with a
unyielding stance in the icy relations with neighbouring Azerbaijan
and Turkey. Sargsyan’s present is a political regime with
authoritarian features but also an element of predictability and
stability as one ruling circle takes charge of running the country
both politically and economically at the expense of opponents and
competitors.
The past is brought back by the unexpected return to the political
scene of the Armenian president over 1991-1998 Lev Ter-Petrossian.
The former president accuses the current elite of corruption and
ruling the country at their own volition. He promises to change the
constitution and abolish the presidential position altogether within
three years of coming into the office. Ter-Petrossian is also more
conciliatory on the settlement of Armenia’s dispute with its
neighbours, the very position that cost him the office in 1998 when
the more hawkish Kocharian-Sargsyan tandem ousted him from the
office. Ter-Petrossian’s agenda is a more democratic and open
Armenia, although with a greater degree of certainly and
unpredictability, including in the economic sphere.
Seven other candidates are running in the race, of which the splinter
Artur Baghdasarian, a former parliamentary speaker and defector to
both the government and the opposition, and Vahan Hovannisian, former
deputy parliamentary speaker, are notable as having enough of public
prominence and seeking to break from the Sargsyan-Ter-Petrossian
framework on a more liberal and West-oriented and more socialist and
nationalist platforms, respectively.
Outlook and Implications
Opinion polls give a 50% lead to the prime minister, and maximum 15%
to his opponents, but the opposition have challenged the polls as
biased and part of governmental propaganda. Indeed, tomorrow’s voting
result would be a better indication of the voter preferences,
although even that is likely to be challenged by the opposition as
forged. Ter-Petrossian has already announced a public rally to
contest the election result on Wednesday (20 February), and given
that he has shown a consistent record of ability to harness popular
support, with the latest public rally having been attended by some
50,000 people (with claims of up to 300,000), he may be well capable
of rocking Sargsyan’s boat. He will be aiming to make it into a
two-round race, but in any case public protests will remain
Ter-Petrossian’s principal leverage, the strength of which is yet to
be seen.
Should public protests and turbulence arise, international observers
and Russia will prove decisive factors. The May 2007 parliamentary
election was the first ever to be internationally recognised in
Armenia, and the ruling elite are wary of the need to appear
compliant with democratic procedural norms, if only to use
international recognition as a lever against any possible claims of
fraud by Ter-Petrossian. Some 600 international observers are
descending on the polling booths, a large enough contingent for a
comprehensive and reliable report. Both candidates are also seeking
the backing of the Kremlin, as Russia is increasingly the strongest
investor in the country: while the ruling elite has publicly
verifiable good standing with the Kremlin, Ter-Petrossian also claims
having had supportive talks with the top Russian officials, which
may, however, have been insurance policy on part of Russia. Hence
both principal candidates have to show respect to their opponent’s
possible domestic and international supporters, making for a much
more open and contested race than one could have expected before
Ter-Petrossian’s comeback. This adds weight to the voter choice,
making it open and meaningful, and the election outcome somewhat
unpredictable, a welcome break from the dominant post-Soviet
tradition. Global Insight will continue monitoring the election
process as it unveils with another comment immediately following the
announcement of the result.