The Economist
February 23, 2008
U.S. Edition
Out of Armenia, something new?
Armenia
Armenia’s presidential election
Armenia’s new president says he is ready to talk to Azerbaijan
ELECTIONS in former Soviet republics rarely yield surprises. The
incumbent wins; the opposition cries foul; it takes to the streets.
The presidential vote in Armenia on February 19th ran true to form.
Serzh Sarkisian, the prime minister, won 53% of the vote, enough to
avert a runoff with his main rival, Levon Ter-Petrossian, with 21%.
Mr Ter-Petrossian, a former president, said Mr Sarkisian had stolen
the vote even before ballots were counted. Independent observers
talked of ballot stuffing and intimidation.
Yet, as thousands of demonstrators gathered in central Yerevan,
monitors from the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in
Europe opined that the election was "mostly in line with the
country’s international commitments", even though the vote count in
16% of stations was "bad or very bad". That verdict makes it more
unlikely that the opposition can overturn the result.
Assuming Mr Sarkisian does get the top job, he will have his work cut
out. Small and landlocked, Armenia has been blockaded by Azerbaijan
and Turkey since it won a vicious war in 1994 for possession of
Nagorno-Karabakh, a province of Soviet Azerbaijan that was mostly
populated by Armenians. Russian troops patrol some of its borders
and, though economic growth has been fuelled by a building boom and
dollops of aid from America and the Armenian diaspora, much of the
recent wealth is concentrated in the hands of oligarchs. Russia has a
huge stake in the economy.
Like the outgoing president, Robert Kocharian, Mr Sarkisian is from
Nagorno-Karabakh. Both men were commanders in the war. But unlike his
hawkish predecessor, Mr Sarkisian is "a pragmatist, a skilled
manager, and receptive to new ideas," argues Tigran Lazarian, a
foreign-policy expert in Yerevan. As defence minister, Mr Sarkisian
oversaw Armenia’s adhesion to a NATO scheme for former Soviet
colonies. This week Mr Sarkisian told your correspondent he was ready
to make peace with Azerbaijan so long as it was "an honourable one".
This might include ceding some of the conquered territories outside
Nagorno-Karabakh. On Turkey, he struck a more hawkish note, calling
Turkey’s pre-conditions for establishing diplomatic ties
"unacceptable". Yet long-stalled unofficial talks between the two
countries are expected to resume once Mr Sarkisian takes over.
What transpires between Armenia, Turkey and Azerbaijan is not up to
Mr Sarkisian alone. Clearing the government of corruption is. One
test will be the number of allegedly crooked ministers he boots out
of the cabinet. Should he flunk this, Mr Ter-Petrossian’s talk of
"criminal rule" will ring ever more true.