REGRESS FOR SERGE SARGSYAN, VICTORY FOR KOCHARYAN
James Hakobyan
Lragir
12:06:44 – 27/02/2008
On February 19 the presidential candidate Serge Sargsyan voted an hour
after Robert Kocharyan at the same polling station 9/11 and stated in
a news briefing that the government will not undergo essential changes
since the government shaped after the parliamentary election has been
working for nine months and effectively. Seven days past February 19
Serge Sargsyan addressed the rally staged at the Square of Republic and
stated that he offers cooperation to all the presidential candidates,
and is willing to shape a coalition government. On the same day, in an
exclusive interview with the Public Television, Robert Kocharyan said
one of the ways of overcoming the polarization of the society would
be the effort of the new president to shape a government including
not only the representatives of the Republican and Bargavach Hayastan
parties but also a bigger political specter.
It is obvious that within the seven days that followed February 19
the approach of the government has undergone a change, and if a few
days ago no essential changes to the government were expected, now the
president and the prime minister are already considering a coalition
government. And it means an essential change since it does not mean
that besides the Republican Party and the Bargavach Hayastan Party
only the ARF Dashnaktsutyun representatives will remain involved
in the government. It could not be considered as an effort toward
easing polarization in the society, even a formal one, because the ARF
Dashnaktsutyun used to be part of government till now. Consequently,
either the replacement of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun by another force or
other forces is concerned, or the involvement of another force or
other forces besides the ARF Dashnaktsutyun is concerned. For its
part, it is evidence to a significant change in the home political
situation. At least, it is evidence that Serge Sargsyan who did not
suppose any essential change to the government is now speaking about
willingness to expand the coalition.
Certainly, this is considerable regress for Serge Sargsyan, meanwhile
for Robert Kocharyan, at least at the moment, it is a considerable
home political victory. The point is that the victory of the Republican
Party in the presidential election was actually supposed to crystallize
the government pyramid, and by overcoming certain opposing interests
before the parliamentary election it was supposed to be turned back
into a monolithic structure. Naturally, it did not fit in Robert
Kocharyan’s plans because the monolithic government is good for him
as long as he is de jure the top of the government, but as soon as he
leaves the office of president, the monolithic pyramid may prevent
him from influencing government. This is the reason why Robert
Kocharyan presupposed an at least rectangular coalition before the
parliamentary election – the Republican Party, the Bargavach Hayastan
Party, the ARF Dashnaktsutyun and the United Labor Party. However,
Serge Sargsyan did not allow this, omitting the ULP from the line, and
letting the ARF Dashnaktsutyun only two steps closer. The victory of
the Republican candidate in the presidential election was supposed to
remove the ARF Dashnaktsutyun and thereby crystallize the government
pyramid even more, depriving Robert Kocharyan of any influence on
this pyramid. Now, however, seven days past February 19, it is obvious
that Serge Sargsyan’s plan did not come true, and he is compelled to
return to the option of a rectangular coalition outlined by Robert
Kocharyan, because the situation is already out of control and Serge
Sargsyan is no longer able to return it into his domain, therefore he
has no way out but to accept as many angles in the coalition as Robert
Kocharyan will offer. This is the right moment to recall the words of
Davit Hakobyan, the doctor, the Marxist and perhaps also the oracle,
which he uttered on July 22, 2006, after the historical conference
of the Republican Party that if Serge Sargsyan fails to get the post
of president before January 2007, afterwards he will never get it.