CrisisWatch N°55, 1 March 2008
International Crisis Group, Belgium
March 1 2008
Twelve actual or potential conflict situations around the world
deteriorated in February 2008, and four improved, according to the
new issue of CrisisWatch, released today.
The situation deteriorated in Armenia, where – as CrisisWatch went to
press – a violent crackdown sought to suppress eleven days of
protests after presidential elections that the opposition claimed
were rigged. A state of emergency has been declared, and armed forces
are reportedly mobilising for broader repression.
Attacks on Timor-Leste’s president and prime minister underlined the
need for security sector reform in the fragile country. Yet their
aftermath – including the killing of former head of military police
Alfredo Reinado, who led the attack on the president – presents an
opportunity for the government to address key issues.
Rebels in Chad launched a major assault on the capital N’Djamena in
which hundreds were killed and thousands displaced. A state of
emergency is still in place amid reports of a heavy government
crackdown. In Darfur, the Sudanese government attacked three towns
and an IDP camp from both ground and air, marking the worst violence
in the region in months.
The situation also deteriorated in Cameroon, Comoros Islands, DR
Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea, Israel/Occupied Territories, Philippines,
Serbia and Somalia.
The situation improved in Kosovo, as its 17 February declaration of
independence was met with widespread celebrations and limited unrest
in Serb enclaves. In Kenya, a power-sharing deal ended a month of
difficult negotiations between President Mwai Kibaki and opposition
leader Raila Odinga, as the country began to move forward from its
post-election political crisis, though the situation is still very
fragile. In Pakistan, opposition parties that could dismantle
military rule swept to power in relatively peaceful mid-month
elections. And in Cyprus, President-elect Christofias vowed to meet
at the "earliest possible date" for reunification talks with his
Turkish-Cypriot counterpart.
For March 2008, CrisisWatch identifies Armenia, Comoros Islands and
Kenya as Conflict Risk Alerts. It identifies Cyprus, Pakistan,
Timor-Leste and Uganda as Conflict Resolution Opportunities.
FEBRUARY 2008 TRENDS
Deteriorated Situations
Armenia, Cameroon, Chad, Comoros Islands, DR Congo, Ethiopia/Eritrea,
Israel/Occupied Territories, Philippines, Serbia, Somalia, Sudan,
Timor-Leste
Improved Situations
Cyprus, Kenya, Kosovo, Pakistan
Unchanged Situations
Afghanistan, Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh,
Basque Country (Spain), Belarus, Bolivia, Bosnia & Herzegovina,
Burundi, Central African Republic, Chechnya (Russia), Colombia, Côte
d’Ivoire, Ecuador, Egypt, Ethiopia, Georgia, Guinea, Guinea-Bissau,
Haiti, India, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Lebanon,
Liberia, Macedonia, Mali, Mauritania, Moldova, Myanmar/Burma,
Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan), Nepal, Niger, Nigeria, North Caucasus
(non-Chechnya), North Korea, Rwanda, Saudi Arabia, Senegal, Sierra
Leone, Somaliland, Sri Lanka, Syria, Taiwan Strait, Tajikistan,
Thailand, Turkey, Turkmenistan, Uganda, Ukraine, Uzbekistan,
Venezuela, Yemen, Zimbabwe.
MARCH 2008 OUTLOOK
Conflict Risk Alerts
Armenia, Comoros Islands, Kenya
Conflict Resolution Opportunity
Cyprus, Pakistan, Timor-Leste, Uganda
*NOTE: CrisisWatch indicators – up and down arrows, conflict risk
alerts, and conflict resolution opportunities – are intended to
reflect changes within countries or situations from month to month,
not comparisons between countries. For example, no "conflict risk
alert" is given for a country where violence has been occurring and
is expected to continue in the coming month: such an indicator is
given only where new or significantly escalated violence is feared.
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