ARMENIA: BETTING ON A COALITION FOR POLITICAL STABILITY
Marianna Grigoryan
EurasiaNet
March 25 2008
NY
Nearly one month after a bloody clash between police and opposition
protestors, the Armenian government is betting on a newly formed
coalition to restore political "stability" and "solidarity." But,
with its protests continuing, the opposition insists that only policy
and personnel changes can defuse the simmering crisis.
To outsiders, a political memorandum released March 21 seems to usher
in an awkward coalition: the governing Republican Party of Armenia
and pro-government Prosperous Armenia Party are being joined by two
parties that were outspoken government critics during the recent
election campaign – the Country of Law (Orinats Yerkir) Party and
the Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) .
The government states that the partnership was formed based "on the
results of the February 19, 2008, presidential election, pursuing the
goal of ensuring progressive development of the Republic of Armenia."
Orinats Yerkir leader Artur Baghdasarian and ARF senior member
Vahan Hovhannisian finished third and fourth, respectively, in the
presidential race. [For background see the special feature – Armenia:
Vote 2008].
The coalition, which outgoing President Robert Kocharian supposedly
helped establish, has stated in the memorandum that it plans to deepen
"popular reforms," improve "mechanisms for human rights protection",
oppose "foreign and domestic challenges to the Republic of Armenia,"
and implement "bold and realistic reforms.".
"Authorities are doing everything in order to establish stability in
the country," said senior Republican Party MP Armen Ashotian. "Thanks
to the coalition memorandum, other political forces have gathered
around key issues."
Meanwhile, the opposition has continued to protest the election results
and the March 1 violence. [For background see the Eurasia Insight
archive]. So-called "silent protests" through downtown Yerevan have
continued since March 21, when the government lifted Armenia’s state
of emergency. [For background see the Eurasia insight archive]. Former
President Levon Ter-Petrosian, who claims he won the February 19 vote,
remains under house arrest, and scores of prominent opposition figures
and activists remain in jail.
Without the release of these detainees and the end of "political
persecutions," argues opposition Heritage Party parliamentarian Anahit
Bakhshian, the government’s memorandum is meaningless. "Based on its
content, the memorandum is reassuring. When I read it, I thought that
I would, too, wish to sign to such a memorandum," said Bakhshian. "The
question, however, is whether or not they will be able to realize
the points included in it. In this atmosphere …
there is still not the political will by which it will be possible
to bring stability to the country."
Baghdasarian’s participation in the coalition is a particularly sore
point for government critics. Among many convinced Kocharian opponents,
the 39-year-old former parliament speaker was long suspected of
being a fair-weather politician. Prior to the presidential election,
he seemed poised to join forces with Ter-Petrosian. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive]. That he suddenly switched sides,
accepting on February 29 an appointment as the chairman of the National
Security Council, left many Ter-Petrosian supporters harboring feelings
of enduring enmity for Baghdasarian.
Baghdasarian now is one of the government’s biggest boosters. "There
is . . . resolve on the part of the newly elected president [Serzh
Sarkisian]," he said recently. "There is a desire, indeed, to make
positive changes in the country."
For its part, the ARF of late has expressed similar admiration for
Sarkisian’s political skills, even though the ARF’s own presidential
candidate, Hovhannisian, earlier resigned as deputy parliamentary
speaker in protest at alleged election violations.
Despite the appearance that unsavory political deals have been sealed,
one independent political analyst contends that the coalition may in
the end prove the right choice. "The coalition may have an inglorious
end, or it may also [make] clear changes that will alleviate the
current situation," observed Yervand Bozoian. "At present, perhaps
it is not so important who signed the memorandum, as it is what the
next steps and policy will be."
The protests leading up to the March 1 events, along with the more
muted post-March 21 demonstrations, provide proof that thousands of
Armenians are dissatisfied with the government, Bozoian continued.
The key is whether the authorities can win over the discontented.
The government already has taken tentative steps to improve the
social safety net. On March 20, for example, the cabinet announced
plans to allocate roughly $400,000 to provide relief to distressed
farmers. Ashotian, the Republican Party MP, said additional welfare
measures will soon be taken. "The inauguration of the newly elected
president will take place on April 9," Ashotian said. "And after that,
the actions will become clearer."
During the presidential campaign, Sarkisian pledged that families’
incomes "will at least double" under his administration, and that
"newly formed" families "will have an opportunity to get an apartment
and a car." Residents of Armenia’s remote border villages, he claimed,
will also be able to lead "a dignified life."
Government critics content that civil rights, not living standards
are the primary concern of most Armenians. To stabilize the domestic
political situation, argues the Heritage Party’s Bakhshian, the
country’s leaders need to "change their attitudes and many officials
at the top."
"However, we do not see a trend towards those changes right now,"
she said. "And, in this case, people cannot calmly wait."