EVOLVING CENTRAL EURASIAN MATRIX
23 .04.2008
For years to come Central Eurasia is going to be the most happening
field in international politics. Though the situation there is in
constant flux and the principle of certitude fails, it would be naïve
to ignore the importance of the region due to its geostrategic location
and resources.
Interestingly, Central Eurasia as a concept has eluded the scope
of a proper definition. John Schoeberlein an expert in the area
attempts at a broader definition under which he includes ‘lands
from the Iranian Plateau, the Black Sea, and the Volga Basin through
Afghanistan, Southern Siberia, and the Himalayas to Muslim and Manchu
regions of China and the Mongol lands.’ Robert M. Cutler employs seven
scales of analysis in his theory on Central Eurasia. The advocates of
‘Critical geopolitics’ challenge the realist and neorealist theories
of international politics and emphasise on role of non-state actors,
such as international financial institutions, in both the conceptual
and the material construction of the region. However, from a wider
perspective the concept can be seen more an interactive than an
integrative one. Culture wise, Central Eurasia can be considered
as a landscape traversed by not only diverse empires but also by
diverse cultures.
The impact of the former Soviet Union, and earlier of the Tsarist rule,
on the formation of the socio-political and economic personality of the
Central Eurasia can not be ignored. The rule of the Russian empire and
the subsequent Soviet Union had brought a kind of uniformity in most
parts of the region. However, after the Soviet collapse, the region
underwent a radical transformation. A host of forces including clan
politics, religion, fundamentalism and feudal system of governance
came up or refashioned.
Myriad diversities aside, the collapse of the Soviet Union brought
these states to the brink of uncertainty. The old communist apparatchik
took over the reigns of power. Some of the regimes in this region,
especially in Central Asia, are seeking to build legitimacy through
adoption of cultural ideologies. There was no requisite formation of
civil society structures to work for the promotion of democracy. The
weak political institutions appeared increasingly unable to channel the
growing energies of the mass in constructive directions. Another crisis
that struck these emerging nations is economic backwardness. Besides
the demerits of segregated economic developments inherited from the
Soviet Union, these societies did not get adequate international aid
or investments to boost their economy, especially in the initial stage
of their independence. Worse still, the resources remain unexplored
and the fear of rising Islamic extremism drives away the potential
investors. Though most of territorial disputes are resolved, the
remaining conflicts as in the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, Abkhazia or
South Ossetia have played havoc in the development of the region.
In the post-Cold War scenario, Central Eurasia assumed importance
not only as bridge between East and West, but also having strategic
importance far beyond its impacts on immediate neighbours. When energy
resources are added to this strategic equation, the region faces a
challenging future. Both global markets and the international players
are keenly involved in this emerging scenario. Parts of the region
such as Caspian Sea basin are rich in energy resources and there are
prospects of opening trans-Central Eurasia routes. It is estimated
that the Caspian sea basin contains about 200 billion barrels of
oil. In the emerging scenario the four major influences in the region
can be identified: Russia, the West, led by the United States China,
and the ‘new Islamic pole’, involving theocratic and fundamentalist
regimes. Among the four, while the first three have more or less
political and economic ambitions in the region, the fourth seems to
have subtle underpinnings, endeavouring to drive the region towards
radicalism. Interestingly, though there is diversity of religious
practices in Central Eurasian states, of late the influence of radical
Islam has come to forefront. It is reported that the Wahabi variety
of Islam, stemmed from the soil of Saudi Arabia, has made enough
dent in Central Eurasia. It is widely perceived that one of the major
centres of the Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and Pakistan, the rise of the
Taliban and the international drug racket owe their existence partly
to fragile politics in the region. Whether it is Chechnya or Kashmir
or Xinjiang, the international network of Islamic terrorism has its
sustenance from the difficult mountain terrains in the region.
While the United States has endeavoured to fill the power vacuum in
the Central Eurasian region to suit its interests, Russia and China
perceive it as encroachment into their sphere of influence. In 2001
for the first time deployment of the American combat troops took
place near the Kyrgyz capital, Bishkek as part of the anti-terror
campaign in Afghanistan. It appears that the US has used the massive
military build-up in Central Asia to seal the ‘cold war victory against
Russia, to contain Chinese influence and to tighten the noose around
Iran.’ Worried that the US presence might encourage internal unrest
in its Central Asian province of Xinjiang, China held joint military
exercises with Kyrgyzstan. In October 2003 Russia’s Defence Minister,
Sergei Ivanov, demanded publicly that the Americans pull out within two
years. President Putin has signed new security pacts with the Central
Asian rulers, allowing Russian troops to set up a new military base
in Kyrgyzstan, which lies only 35 miles away from the US airbase.
Turkey and Iran are the major local influences in the region. The
Iranian and Turkic influence stem from geographical contiguity of
the region and also due to historical ties. Interestingly, the great
power involvement in the regional dynamics has further complicated the
regional politics. The alignments of Iran with Russia and Turkey with
the US have led to further alignments of local nature. For instance,
in the regional conflicts like Nagorno-Karabakh the standpoint of
the countries of the region are marked by their equations with these
alignments. While the Iranian influence is much more distinct in
Central Asian countries, the influence of Turkey is more prominent
in Caucasian states like Azerbaijan. Central Eurasian languages are
also based either on Turkic or on Persian roots, with later Russian
influence. But, this impact has also led to sullen memories of
rivalries, conquest and empire-building.
It is difficult to say whether various regional organisations such
as Commonwealth of Independent States, Eurasian Economic Community,
Black Sea Economic Cooperation, Shanghai Cooperation Organisation,
etc. can provide the needed sinew to keep the states together on
a single platform to raise and meet common issues. Though these
organisations can provide opportunity to work together for enhancing
security and coping with the future challenges but mutual differences
between the countries seem to make difficult the prospects of
cooperation. While the states like Georgia, Ukraine, etc. have raised
significant differences with Russia, other states of Central Asia and
the Caucasus have embroiled themselves with internal problems. The
eastward expansion of NATO and inclusion of former Soviet countries
in the European Union have made the region susceptible to power
politics. The recent controversy over anti-missile shield in Europe,
NATO moving closer to Ukraine and the Kosovo crisis can be seen in
this context.
Central Eurasia has for a number of years been in the process of
becoming a region of major strategic importance. Given the increased
competition in the region the importance of Central Eurasia is set
to grow. The manoeuvres of the West to fill the power vacuum left by
the fall of the Soviet Union, and the attempts by Russia to regain
the lost ground, have further accentuated the prospects of a new cold
war without ideology. Any instability in Central Eurasia is a matter
of common concern for several reasons. First, instability in the
region permits the operation and growth of terrorist movements that
often have a global reach. Second, the surge of illicit narcotics
trade throughout the region provides a major source of funding for
these groupings. Third, the Caspian sea basin is an emerging oil
producing region which can play an important role in future energy
security. Finally, regional conflicts in this volatile area have the
potential of developing into major power confrontations.
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