"KREMLIN’S "INDEPENDENCE" LIST DOES NOT INCLUDE NAGORNO-KARABAKH OR TRANS-DNIESTER REGION"
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
April 25, 2008 Friday
HIGHLIGHT: AZERBAIJANI POLITICAL SCIENTIST: RUSSIA HAS ALREADY
PUBLISHED THE LIST OF WHAT FORMATIONS IT WANTS SOVEREIGNTY FOR;
Azerbaijani political scientist Mubariz Akhmedoglu comments on the
Nagorno-Karabakh and Trans-Dniester conflicts as opposed to the ones
over Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Mubariz Akhmedoglu, Political Innovations and Techniques Center
Director, is convinced that the latest developments around Abkhazia
and South Ossetia manifest Russia’s dominance in the Russian-Georgian
relations.
"Neither the United States nor Europe can have any serious effect on
this relationship," the Azerbaijani political scientist said. "Russia
is doing what it thinks promotes its interests."
According to Akhmedoglu, there is nothing to prevent Russian
recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if it so decides.
"I do not think, however, that Russia will recognize sovereignty of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It’s not in Moscow’s interests, you know,"
Akhmedoglu said.
As for the deteriorating crisis in the relations between Russia and
Georgia, the political scientists pinned the blame for it on the policy
"Tbilisi has been promoting with regard to Moscow."
"As a matter of fact, the best considerate policy in the region is
promoted by Azerbaijan, and that is something others are welcome to
emulate. We may give a firm "no" to Europe, America, or Russia, but
we do cooperate with the West, Washington, and Moscow anyway because
our national interests require it," Akhmedoglu said.
"Unlike Baku, Tbilisi has always been viciously pro-Western,"
he said. "The West in its turn has failed Georgia when it needed
assistance. Moreover, NATO never lived up to the expectations Georgia
and Ukraine had entertained concerning their membership in it. To
a certain degree, all of that untied Moscow’s hands and allowed it
to promote a policy with regard to Georgia stiffer than it had been
only recently."
According to the political scientist, the Kremlin’s stand on the
matter of two other conflicts in the post-Soviet zone (ones in over
Nagorno-Karabakh and Trans-Dniester region) dramatically differs from
the stand on Abkhazian and South Ossetian conflicts.
"Diarchy is the talk of the day in Russia now," Akhmedoglu said. "On
the one hand, Putin all but accepted Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the
Russian Federation. It is the Russian Cabinet that will deal with these
conflicts now." As for Nagorno-Karabakh and Trans-Dniester region,
the political scientist said they would remain the prerogative of
President Dmitry Medvedev.
Akhmedoglu expects Medvedev to continue negotiations with Baku and
Kishinev and that "Karabakh will be turned over to Azerbaijan and the
Trans-Dniester region to Moldova" as soon as Azerbaijan and Moldova
offered the Kremlin something in return.
"Moscow has already told Kishinev what it wants and the Moldova
authorities demonstrate their willingness to give in. Negotiations
with Azerbaijan will continue as well. In any event, Armenia will never
see Nagorno-Karabakh recognized as a sovereign state," Akhmedoglu said.
According to the political scientist, Moscow has already published
the list of formations it wants sovereignty for. "Nagorno-Karabakh
and the Trans-Dniester region are not on the list."